LEVEL 2 SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR SATURDAY… Isolated rain showers are possible across the region on this Friday ahead of a low-end severe weather risk shaping up for Saturday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Temperatures will surge into the upper-60s and low-70s this afternoon. That is too warm for January and a sign that changes are on the way. The Storm Prediction Center has included much of our local area in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Saturday, meaning isolated strong to severe storms will be possible. We’re also looking ahead to colder temperatures on Sunday into Monday. Plenty to discuss in the weather department this morning. Let’s go…
ISOLATED SHOWERS & WARMER TODAY… You’ll probably notice the southerly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico when you step outside today. Humidity values are increasing ahead of the arrival of a strong cold front that will move by late on Saturday. Isolated showers are possible throughout the day. High temperatures will peak around 70° this afternoon. No severe weather is expected today and thunderstorms should remain to our west today.
NOTE ABOUT THE GRAPHICS… The graphics you see in the RZW forecast video show the Level 1 risk only as this video was produced before SPC introduced the upgraded risk. See the detailed paragraphs below describing who is involved in the updated risk zones…
LEVEL 2 SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR SATURDAY… All of south Alabama and norhtwest Florida has at least some risk of severe weather on Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has included much of our area in their Level 2, “slight risk” zone where scattered severe storms could happen. Locally, the following communities are included in the Level 2 risk zone: Mobile, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Wilmer, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Point Clear, Bay Minette, Tensaw, Stockton, Perdido, Loxley, Walnut Hill, Jay, Century, Bratt, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Brewton, Flomaton, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lyeffion, Repton, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Monroeville, Uriah, Megargal, Beatrice, Perdue Hill, Tunnel Springs, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Gosport, Chatom, Millry, Leroy, McIntosh, Sunflower, and Fruitdale. These are the areas where stronger storms are more likely to occur on Saturday. We note Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery, Talladega, Demopolis, Camden, Selma, Clanton, and Alexander City are included in the Level 2 risk in central Alabama.
LEVEL 1 RISK FOR EVERYONE ELSE… If you’re not included in the Level 2 risk zone in our area, then you’re definitely included in the lower-end, Level 1 risk zone, where the atmosphere won’t be AS conducive for strong storm development. The following places are included in that zone… Pensacola, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Elberta, Foley, Silverhill, Robertsdale, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Navarre, Destin, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Munson, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Troy, Dothan, Enterprise, Auburn, Elba, Geneva, Abbeville, Eufaula, and Daleville.
STORM TIMING… The risk of severe weather will last from 10AM Saturday to 7PM Saturday for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms will likely enter west Alabama from Mississippi in the late morning hours. These storms will move across our region from west to east through the Saturday afternoon hours.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS… The concern on Saturday will be due to the low-end risk of isolated, brief tornadoes and damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms that happen. While there will be somewhat of a ‘mismatch’ of severe weather ingredients (with greater shear values to our north and instability fairly limited to the south), there could be one or two tornadoes and a few instances of damage due to strong winds in any storms that can “go severe.”
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Anytime there is a tornado warning for any part of our 12 county primary coverage area, we stream uninterrupted severe weather coverage in the RedZone Weather app and on Facebook Live. See redzoneweather.com/coverage for more information about our coverage commitment.
MUCH COLDER SUNDAY… After the passage of the cold front that is causing this low-end severe weather potential, significantly colder air will move into our region from the northwest late Saturday into Sunday. While temperatures will likely not be AS cold as initially indicated, our entire region will likely plunge into the 20s by Monday morning. The daytime hours of Monday look to be a bit warmer than we initially expected as well. High temperatures on Monday will surge into the 50s.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK… Another cold front is set to approach our area in the middle part of next week. Rain chances will be elevated late Tuesday into Wednesday. It’s too early to say whether severe weather will be a potential issue, but that is a possibility we will need to monitor. Let’s get through this low-end severe weather risk on Saturday then we will start focusing on midweek of the upcoming week.
See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video… Enjoy your day!