SMALL, YET GROWING, CHANCE FOR SNOW/MIX ON TUESDAY… While there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast in the 4-5 day range, it seems reasonable based on the latest model trends to start mentioning a small chance of snow or mixed precipitation across the interior of south Alabama valid for Tuesday, January 29. I can’t stress enough that further forecast refinements WILL be necessary, and there is still a medium-high chance that the entire area on Tuesday may have RAIN with no mix/snow. Again, still a lot that we don’t know just yet, but here is what we do know as of Friday afternoon…
RAIN FIRST, THEN A CHANGEOVER TO MIX AND SNOW… There is confidence in the *overall* weather pattern setup for Tuesday. A strong cold front will dive to the southeast across Alabama, northwest Florida, and the Deep South, ushering in very cold air from the north. All too often this time of year, the devil is in the details and we just are not able to be super specific at this point. Most major weather models, including the American-based Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European (ECMWF), suggest that most areas will see rain during the morning hours of Tuesday. Some areas, especially over north and central Alabama will (perhaps briefly) see a change over to a wintry mix followed by some snow. The big question mark for our area at this point is just how far south we have mixed precipitation and/or snow. Based on this context, please see our official forecast below…
LOW SNOW CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH ALABAMA… We will suggest a 20 percent chance of mixed precipitation and/or snow for our inland counties on Tuesday. That is a 1 in 5 chance that parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Covington, and Crenshaw counties has snow/mix on Tuesday. Note that it is far too early to suggest whether or not accumulation will happen in these areas. Odds are (at this point) no accumulation will happen, but no one, and I mean NO ONE, knows for sure. We’ve also outlined a part of our area in a lower, 10% chance zone for snow/mix valid for Tuesday, including the northern parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties, Escambia County (AL), and southern Covington County. Snow/mix chances for coastal areas remains very, very low for now.
REGARDLESS OF SNOW/MIX, RAIN IS LIKELY… This won’t be a situation where we have simply cloudy skies followed by snow. Regardless of if a given location has any snow/mix, rain is likely beforehand with a potential (brief) changeover. Thunderstorms are not expected as this rain moves in late Monday into Tuesday.
VERY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT… Regardless of if snow/mix happens locally (or not), this will almost certainly be the coldest air the Deep South has had this season. Overnight lows across inland areas of south Alabama could easily fall into the mid-20s with some spots falling to around 20°. We note that parts of the midwestern U.S. will be below zero Wednesday morning as a large area of high pressure builds in from Canada. Very cold air!
APP ALERTS… We will continue to monitor the snow potential setting up for Tuesday over the weekend and bring you the latest via the RedZone Weather app. Once you the RZW app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
Have a good Friday evening!