WARM TODAY; STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE SATURDAY TO THE NORTH… Our weather focus shifts to the north on Saturday as a potent storm system is set to potentially cause a signficiant round of severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few strong tornadoes. Before we get there, warm, muggy conditions will persist across south Alabama and northwest Florida today. High temperatures will climb into the low-80s this afternoon, well above our climatological norms. There will be a low-end risk of strong to severe thunderstorms locally on Saturday evening. Let’s talk details…
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY… Most spots will have a mix of sunshine and clouds today but there could be a few isolated showers at times. The greatest chance of rain today will happen across west Alabama. No severe weather issues are expected today. That changes on Saturday, however.
STORM TIMING – SATURDAY… The line of thunderstorms that will move across Mississippi and northwest Alabama will approach our local area late in the day on Saturday, probably after 3PM. The core risk time for south Alabama will be from 5PM to 11PM. The good news for our local area is that the better atmospheric dynamics will be moving away to the northeast by the time that storms reach our area. That’s why we “only” have a Level 1 risk zone in place as opposed to a higher zone. The greater combination of “severe weather ingredients” will happen to our northwest.
STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY… There will likely be a significant round of severe weather capable of producing a few significant, strong tornadoes on Saturday across parts of northwest Alabama, north Mississippi, western Tennessee, and eastern Arkansas. The Storm Prediction Center has those areas included in an uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone. Based on the latest model data, there is a chance in upcoming outlooks that an upgrade to Level 4 may be needed. Our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is included in the low-end Level 1 risk area, meaning a strong storm or two may happen but widespread severe weather is not expected.
NORTH & CENTRAL ALABAMA RISK AREAS… Parts of Lauderdale, Colbert, and Franklin counties in north Alabama are included in the higher end Level 3 risk area. That includes places like Muscle Shoals, Florence, and Russellville. These are the communities MOST likely to have severe weather issues on Saturday. Much of the remainder of central and north Alabama are included in the standard, Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone where scattered severe storms may happen. This Level 2 risk zone includes places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Gadsden, Anniston, Huntsville, Cullman, Decatur, Livingston, Demopolis, Oneonta, Jasper, Aliceville, Fayette, Hamilton, Double Springs, Marion, and Fort Payne.
LEVEL 1 RISK ZONE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA… Much of our local area is included in the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone. Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Escambia (AL), Baldwin, Mobile, and Washington counties are included in this zone where an isolated severe storm is possible but much less likely than areas to the northwest.
HAVE A WAY TO GET THE WARNINGS… If you’re close to someone that lives in northwest Alabama, north Mississippi, western Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, or southern Kentucky, tag them or share this information with them to let them know there is a significant round of severe weather ahead. Everyone needs to have multiple ways to get the warnings, especially those that may have strong tornadoes around on Saturday!
APP ALERTS FOR SOUTH AL & NW FL… If you’re in south Alabama or northwest Florida, one way to get warnings is by downloading our free RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your phone or tablet, visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner), then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you would like to receive.
See all the graphics and details in your Friday #rzw forecast video… Have a great weekend!