SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… RZW Exec partners, good evening! We have a Level 2 (out of 5) risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Sunday afternoon and evening. The most likely scenario Sunday is that we will have a southeastward-advancing squall line/QLCS moving across our area in the evening hours that could produce damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes.
RISK PLACEMENT… Basically the entire southern half of Alabama is included in the standard, slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk zone, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. All of northwest Florida is included in the same risk zone as well. Our entire local primary coverage area is included in this zone. Brewton, Atmore, Thomasville, Jay, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Andalusia, Pensacola, Destin, Grove Hill, Chatom, and all local surrounding communities are included.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the two main concerns in the stronger storms. Heavy downpours of rain are expected. Small hail is also possible.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Model consensus continues to grow in that the greatest chance of strong to severe thunderstorms across our local area will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. 2PM to 10PM is the eight hour window when severe weather is most likely. Storms are much more likely earlier in the morning and early afternoon across central Alabama.
Below is a screenshot of the 3 kilometer North American Model (NAM) projected radar at 6PM on Sunday showing the squall line of storms moving through…
NEXT UPDATE… I’ll have another RZW Exec update for you with any significant changes that happen tomorrow (Saturday) by 5PM. Let me know if you have any specific questions!