LOW-END RISK THIS EVENING FOR STRONG STORMS… RZW Exec partners, the Storm Prediction Center continues to outline much of our area in their Levels 1 and 2 risk zones to potentially see a few stronger storms later today. As of late morning, we have a batch of decaying showers and storms moving through parts of Monroe, Wilcox, and northern Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama. These showers and storms developed over southeast Mississippi early this morning and have moved into the western half of our region in the last few hours. I expect these showers to continue to weaken over the next 1-2 hours and be dissipated by 2PM. That should allow for more atmospheric heating this afternoon that could contribute to a few stronger storms later this evening. Here is a quick check of the local radar as of 11:22AM.
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR WIND & HAIL… Normally when any part of our local area has a Level 2 risk, I’m a bit more aggressive in our messaging since there usually is at least some type of tornado risk. This is clearly a situation where the main risks later today will be potentially damaging wind gusts and hail in the stronger thunderstorms that happen. The wind flow in the atmosphere today is unidirectional, meaning there is not much shear in place to cause tornadogenesis. The tornado risk is not zero, but it remains very low. Check out the latest convective outlook below.
SLIGHTLY GREATER RISK INLAND… Portions of Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Wilcox, Choctaw, and Crenshaw counties remain involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone as defined by the Storm Prediction Center. If we happen to have stronger storms this evening, they are most likely to occur in those areas. We note the remainder of our region remains involved in the lower-end, Level 1 marginal risk. “Marginal risk” means that while an isolated strong or severe storm may happen, the atmosphere is only marginally favorable for stronger storms.
WHAT TO EXPECT… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be present later this afternoon into this evening. The core timeframe for stronger storms is from 4PM to 10PM. There is a chance that some spots across our region won’t have *any* rain with this event. Rain and storms will kick out to the east by 3AM on Tuesday. Cooler, drier air will filter into our region overnight.
CONTINUING COVERAGE… As always, if we happen to have any tornado warnings locally today (odds are probably in the 0-10% chance range of a warning happening), be sure to join me for our uninterrupted live coverage. I’ll have plenty of updates this afternoon in the public-facing area of the RedZone Weather app and on redzoneweather.com. Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Thanks for being one of our valued partners. It truly is an honor for me to be able to bring you weather information everyday AND highlight your brand in our coverage. Have a great Monday!