WARM THURSDAY & FRIDAY; ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND… Sunshine is likely this morning before cloud coverage increases later today into Friday. The big weather headline at this point is the potential for severe weather across much of the Deep South on Saturday and Sunday. Much of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains included in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone as issued by the Storm Prediction Center. This means that scattered instances of severe storms, including a few tornadoes, may happen. Further changes in the outlook/forecast will be needed as we get closer to the event. Regardless of severe weather, rain chances will increase slightly for Saturday and increase substantially for Sunday. The silver lining to all this is that the first half of next week should be quite nice as we get into Monday and Tuesday. That’s your forecast summary. Here are the details…
NICE, WARM THURSDAY & FRIDAY… Mostly sunny skies are expected on this Thursday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will again peak in the mid-80s across the region. Cloud coverage will steadily increase throughout the day. Temperatures decline into the 70s this evening and we’re headed to an overnight low around 62° in most spots on Friday morning. Mid-80s are likely again on Friday with mostly cloudy skies. We’ve taken the very low rain chance out for tonight and Friday as it looks like drier air will hang on for a bit longer.
ISOLATED SHOWERS & STORMS ON SATURDAY… The storm system that is set to produce a potent round of severe weather begins to take shape well to our west during the daytime hours of Saturday. We note the Storm Prediction Center has a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone in place for much of northern Louisiana and western Mississippi valid for Saturday. That is a bit concerning, considering this event is still 3-4 days out. Further convective outlook upgrade(s) are possible. A large area of Level 2 risk is in place for much of the Deep South, including much of west Alabama.
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONFUSION… Here’s where things can get confusing, so I want to directly speak to this issue this morning. The current convective outlooks issued by SPC are valid from 7AM one day to 7AM the next day, aka 12 Zulu time to 12Z the next morning. That is why, in our RedZone Weather video, and in the SPC graphics you often see floating around the Internet, it seems like these are two separate events. In actuality, it’s one event moving from west to east with the “cutoff” between the graphics being 6AM Sunday. You’ll see in the video I’ve tried to resolve this confusing issue with an appropriate “hybrid” graphic that I handcrafted. Don’t get so caught up in the graphics that you miss the overarching points (below)…
ALABAMA AND AUBURN A-DAY GAME FORECASTS… Many folks from our area are headed north this weekend to Auburn and Tuscaloosa for A-Day festivities. The detailed forecast for each game is below. While there could be showers and thunderstorms around, the severe weather issues should hold off until after 7PM on Saturday. If you’re driving southbound toward south Alabama or Northwest Florida from Auburn or Tuscaloosa on Saturday evening, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest severe weather info.
ALABAMA A-DAY FORECAST… Alabama kicks off the A-Day spring game at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa at 1PM CDT. Kickoff temperatures will be around 76° with a 50-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms around. Have a way to check the radar if you’re headed to Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Rain chances have been bumped up slightly as it looks like more moisture will be in place to support a few showers and storms.
AUBURN A-DAY FORECAST… Auburn will begin the A-Day spring game at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn at 3PM CDT. Mostly cloudy skies are likely with kickoff temperatures around 80°. There is only a 10% chance of rain and even that may be a stretch. No rain issues are expected in Auburn.
SEVERE STORMS APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT & SUNDAY MORNING… While it is still too early to know if supercell thunderstorms will be an issue out ahead of a QLCS/squall line, we know there is a pretty significant chance of strong to severe thunderstorms approaching west Alabama at some point between 10PM Saturday and 6AM on Sunday. The latest “best estimate” is that storms will approach in the latter half of that timeframe (probably between 3AM and 6AM Sunday). Storms will probably be slightly weaker compared to their strength earlier in the day on Saturday due to a lack of instability. Storms will ramp up during the morning hours of Sunday morning as they move east across our area.
SUBJECT TO CHANGE: TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS SUNDAY MORNING… *Please realize that this is an early estimate highly subject to change. Please check back with me in the next few days for updates!* The 12 hour window in which rain and severe thunderstorms are MOST likely to happen on Sunday will be from 4AM to 4PM, with the main concern being from 8AM to 3PM. That is based on the latest model guidance that will likely change somewhat as we get closer to the event.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY… It’s too early to be specific about where the greatest threat area will set up on Sunday, although we ALL have at least a Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone in place, with outlook upgrades possible over the next few days. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and flash flooding due to heavy rain will all be possible.
CHURCHES NEED TO HAVE A WAY TO GET THE WARNINGS… For the folks that missed my midday Wednesday post: Palm Sunday in 1994 was a disastrous day across Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina as a tornado outbreak happened. The Goshen United Methodist Church at Piedmont, AL was devastated by an EF4 tornado that caused 20 fatalities. A lot of folks across the state and region will be in church services on Sunday morning when this round of severe weather moves through. We encourage pastors and folks in the congregations to *have a way to get tornado warnings on Sunday morning.* I would never want to see a repeat of Palm Sunday 1994. Keep those cell phones and NOAA Weather Radios handy. Know where you would go and what you would do if your church is included in a tornado warning on Sunday!
NICER WEATHER UPCOMING FOR MONDAY & TUESDAY… After the storms on Sunday, we go dry for Monday and Tuesday of the upcoming week. High temperatures will be in the low-80s.
See all the graphics and details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!