SEVERE STORMS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING; SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY & SATURDAY… Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and wind damage will be possible Sunday morning. You will definitely need a way to receive urgent weather warnings starting late Saturday night. The severe weather threat for south Alabama and northwest Florida will likely manifest as a squall line/QLCS, but there also could be supercell thunderstorms involved. If supercells develop out ahead of the main line of storms, that would drastically increase the risk of tornadoes. We’re also looking ahead to yet ANOTHER, separate severe weather risk setting up for the middle part of next week on Wednesday into Thursday. We remain in an active weather pattern. Let’s talk details…
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY… Before we deal with the severe weather risk on Sunday morning, clouds are increasing on this Friday as high temperatures again make a run to the mid-80s. There could be a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two (below severe limits!) later this evening across the far western part of Alabama. Most of us this evening into tonight, however, will remain dry. Cloudy skies are likely overnight into Saturday morning. Overnight lows will be around 62° on Saturday at 6AM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORMS ON SATURDAY… While I am not expecting an “all day washout” event on Saturday, I am expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms during the daytime hours of Saturday could produce heavy downpours of rain and quite a bit of lightning. These will be general thunderstorms likely well below severe limits, very reminiscent of the storms we get in the “dog days” of summer. Mostly cloudy skies are likely throughout the day with high temperatures in the low-80s.
ALABAMA AND AUBURN A-DAY GAME FORECASTS… Many folks from our area are headed north this weekend to Auburn and Tuscaloosa for A-Day festivities. The detailed forecast for each game is below. While there could be showers and thunderstorms around, the severe weather issues should hold off until after 7PM on Saturday. If you’re driving southbound toward south Alabama or northwest Florida from Auburn or Tuscaloosa on Saturday evening, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest severe weather info.
ALABAMA A-DAY FORECAST… Alabama kicks off the A-Day spring game at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa at 1PM CDT. Kickoff temperatures will be around 76° with a 50-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms around. Have a way to check the radar if you’re headed to Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Rain chances have been bumped up slightly as it looks like more moisture will be in place to support a few showers and storms.
AUBURN A-DAY FORECAST… Auburn will begin the A-Day spring game at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn at 3PM CDT. Mostly cloudy skies are likely with kickoff temperatures around 80°. There is only a 10% chance of rain and even that may be a stretch. No rain issues are expected in Auburn.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON SUNDAY MORNING… The most likely scenario for Sunday morning is that a potent line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move by from west to east. These storms will be capable of producing isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line wind gusts, in addition to small hail, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding, and lots of lightning. The big question mark at this point is whether we’ll have supercell thunderstorms forming out ahead of the main line of storms. If that happens and we do get supercell development, that would cause the tornado threat to become more elevated.
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONFUSION… The Storm Prediction Center is the national agency charged with issuing convective outlooks. These are the outlooks you see every, single day in my products. Our local National Weather Service forecast office in Mobile, AL does a great job of showing graphics that are consistent with SPC. The National Weather Service local office in Birmingham has recently started issuing their own “risk graphics.” While SPC maintains only east Alabama in the Level 3 zone (as my graphics/messaging suggests, NWS Birmingham has opted to do their own thing and put their entire coverage area in a Level 3/orange risk area. It is a HIGHLY confusing situation and I’ve had a plethora of private messages about it, even this morning. This (ridiculously confusing) situation, along with several others that have happened this spring, have prompted me to reevaluate our current system. We will do that reevaluation this summer after the current severe weather season winds down. When two agencies under NOAA (NWS & SPC) can’t agree/be consistent with their messaging, that is a significant problem that warrants a signficant solution on our part. Let me know if you have any thoughts! We need to “be better” as a weather enterprise.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… The 12 hour window when severe weather will be most likely remains from 4AM to 4PM on Sunday with the core window being from 7AM to 2PM. We note storms could happen before or after this timeframe, but that is the MOST likely window. Please keep in mind that is the “severe weather timing” and not RAIN timing. Rain is likely intermittently long before that timeframe.
BE “WEATHER AWARE” THIS WEEKEND… Don’t let your guard down this weekend until after our severe weather risk passes on Sunday. We all need to have away to get the urgent weather warnings, especially Sunday morning when the main risk happens. I’ll have updates as needed this weekend in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of app) and then read the alert descriptions so you can pick the ones you want to receive. All of our alerts are currently handcrafted by me. Unlike other sources, we won’t send you a push notification unless there is something you need to know.
Let me know if you have specific questions. See all the graphics and details in your Friday evening #rzw LIVE video update (above)…