SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday afternoon. We have a significant round of severe weather setting up for the evening hours of Thursday into the very early morning hours of Friday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded ALL of our local area into their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. SPC notes that further outlook upgrades are possible over the next 24 hours as this event draws closer.
TORNADO RISK INFO… Please be sure to see my latest long-form public update (published here in the RedZone Weather app as of 12:45PM and copied into this post below) detailing the specifics. This is absolutely an event that could “mean business.” There is a chance of strong tornadoes that could produce considerable damage. The tornado risk looks to be maxed out across eastern Louisiana and southeast Mississippi, meaning west Alabama is at greatest risk in our local area.
DECISION SUPPORT… It’s a blessing for school superintendents reading this that the core of this severe weather event is happening during non-school hours. This will also be an event that happens after regular business hours. IF you, your organization, or your business need decision support information, please don’t hesitate to text or call me this afternoon/evening. (251) 363-8833 is my cell number.
LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL LOCAL AREAS… Tornadoes will be likely Thursday evening into early Friday morning with a few strong tornadoes being possible. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include much of Alabama, southern Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Thursday. Multiple tornadoes are likely, a few strong tornadoes will be possible, damaging wind gusts are likely, and large hail is possible. The higher risk zone remains in place across nearly all of our local area as of the 1PM update. As of 1PM, SPC has expanded the Level 3 risk to include much of southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle region.
LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE FOR THURSDAY… ALL of our local area is now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone on Thursday, including the following areas: Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Repton, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Toxey, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, Leroy, Fruitdale, Calvert, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Mobile, Axis, Prichard, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Saraland, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Stockton, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Jay, Berrydale, Milton, Navarre, Allentown, Chumuckla, Red Level, Greenville, Georgiana, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Luverne, Destin, Crestview, and Fort Walton Beach. Areas just to our north are also included in this Level 3 risk zone: Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Clanton, Selma, Demopolis, Jasper, Hamilton, Prattville, Livingston, Camden, Hayneville, and Butler.
NO ISSUES ON THURSDAY MORNING… Besides some patchy areas of dense fog, no major weather issues are expected before the lunch hour on Thursday. Cloud coverage will continue to increase.
SHOWERS & STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON… Severe weather issues are likely to be in progress to our west on Thursday afternoon. SPC maintains a Level 3 risk zone for much of the southern half of Mississippi and eastern Louisiana where there is a chance of a few strong tornadoes happening. We could have a few spotty showers and storms around our region during the afternoon hours of Thursday. These showers and storms will likely be well under severe limits. We’ll call it a 30% chance of rain during the afternoon hours with rain chances rising after 8PM as the line of storms moves in late Thursday.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… The severe weather risk window will be from 6PM Thursday to 3AM on Friday, with the core risk being from 9PM to 1AM. It looks like we will be up late monitoring storms, meaning we all will need a way to get warnings before we go to sleep!
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS THURSDAY EVENING… The latest model indications point to a severe line of thunderstorms moving through Thursday evening into Friday morning with the risk of a few supercell storms firing up out ahead of the main line. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be concerns as this batch of storms moves by. If supercells can become more discrete and isolated, we will have to adjust the tornado risk even higher than what it is right now. Be sure to check back with me later this evening and Thursday morning for the latest information!
Let me know if you have specific questions. My next detailed forecast update will be available later this evening with a Medium-Level Alert sent for users of our RedZone Weather app. See you then!