INCREASING THURSDAY P.M. TORNADO RISK… There could be a few strong or significant tornadoes across south Alabama, northwest Florida, southeast Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana on Thursday as a vigorous severe weather system moves by. The latest evening model data continues to show a potential for increasing instability values that could fuel supercell storms that may produce strong tornadoes. A few evening details…
LATEST UPDATE ON TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER… The number one question I’ve had this afternoon about the upcoming severe weather risk is “What time will severe weather/tornadoes happen in (insert your city or town name here)?” The severe weather risk window will be from 3PM Thursday to 3AM on Friday, with the core risk being from 8PM to 1AM. We’ve adjusted the timing window to be a bit earlier in the afternoon hours to account for the potential for supercell storms that pop up well ahead of the main line of advancing storms. Basically, everyone needs to have a way to get warnings after lunch on Thursday. Then, DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT if you get a tornado warning for your location.
OUTLOOK UPGRADE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING… Do not be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center upgrades part of our area, southeast Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana into a Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone. That is certainly a possibility. Even if that does not happen, a Level 3 risk is still a very big deal – one that could support significant tornadoes! Take it seriously.
The following information has not changed since my last post earlier this afternoon. All of the info below remains on point…
LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL LOCAL AREAS… Tornadoes will be likely Thursday evening into early Friday morning with a few strong tornadoes being possible. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include much of Alabama, southern Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Thursday. Multiple tornadoes are likely, a few strong tornadoes will be possible, damaging wind gusts are likely, and large hail is possible. The higher risk zone remains in place across nearly all of our local area as of the 1PM update. As of 1PM, SPC has expanded the Level 3 risk to include much of southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle region.
LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE FOR THURSDAY… ALL of our local area is now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone on Thursday, including the following areas: Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Repton, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Toxey, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, Leroy, Fruitdale, Calvert, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Mobile, Axis, Prichard, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Saraland, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Stockton, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Jay, Berrydale, Milton, Navarre, Allentown, Chumuckla, Red Level, Greenville, Georgiana, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Luverne, Destin, Crestview, and Fort Walton Beach. Areas just to our north are also included in this Level 3 risk zone: Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Clanton, Selma, Demopolis, Jasper, Hamilton, Prattville, Livingston, Camden, Hayneville, and Butler.
NO ISSUES ON THURSDAY MORNING… Besides some patchy areas of dense fog, no major weather issues are expected before the lunch hour on Thursday. Cloud coverage will continue to increase.
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS THURSDAY EVENING… Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be concerns as this batch of storms moves by. If supercells can become more discrete and isolated, we will have to adjust the tornado risk even higher than what it is right now. Be sure to check back with me later this evening and Thursday morning for the latest information!
SET UP APP ALERTS… Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app if you haven’t already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of app) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to get straight from me.
Let me know if you have specific questions. I will have a detailed LIVE video in a few hours here on Facebook. Be sure to join me for that!