QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON; SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… We’re really starting to feel the grips of summer as temperatures surge into the upper-80s later today. I wouldn’t be shocked if a few locales hit the 90 degree mark for the first time this year. Rain chances are very low today but will rise slightly in the days ahead. While no severe weather is expected, we could have brief periods of heavy rain over the next few days starting on Friday. The weather pattern setting up is very summer-like. Plenty of heat, humidity, and the occasional pop-up storm that remains under severe limits. We’re also monitoring an area of low pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean that will pose no direct threat to Alabama or northwest Florida. Let’s talk details…
20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION EAST OF FLORIDA… The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the area of low pressure developing near The Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible in 48-72 hours as the system makes a turn toward the northeast. The system will likely remain well away from Alabama and northwest Florida, regardless of if formal development occurs. If the system happens to ramp up to tropical storm status, it would take the name “Andrea.”
HURRICANE SEASON EXPLAINER… The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season does not technically begin until June 1. Tropical storms and hurricanes can develop anytime, however. The June 1 through November 30 hurricane season is the six month time frame when tropical development is MOST likely to happen. ~97% of all systems happen in that time window. ~3% of systems happen December through May, in the “off season.” Those statistics are according to the National Hurricane Center. Last year, we had Subtropical Storm Alberto form in late May, thus this area of low pressure east of the Florida Peninsula is not unprecedented.
KEEP THE RAIN GEAR HANDY STARTING FRIDAY… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Model trends suggest we may have to up the rain chance for Saturday as a frontal system slides by. For now, I’ve got rain chances at 50-60% for Saturday, but don’t be surprised if I bump that up to 70-80% in future forecast videos. None of the upcoming days should be “all day washout” events, but there will be showers and storms around.
CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES UPCOMING… There is no data to suggest any major changes in temperatures for the foreseeable future. Model guidance all the way out to mid-May shows remarkably consistent temperatures with high temperatures in the 80s and near 90° with morning lows in the 60s. We are really settling in to an early summer weather pattern!
See all the graphics and details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Enjoy the day!