HURRICANE SEASON STARTS TODAY; “NEAR NORMAL” SEASON EXPECTED… Today is the first day of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. We’re monitoring an area of disturbed weather currently situated over the Yucatan Peninsula that will move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that has a low-end chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days. That system will NOT directly affect Alabama or northwest Florida. Today will be mostly dry and hot across the local area with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. Could there be a rogue storm or two this afternoon in the heat of the day? Yes, however widespread rain and storms are NOT expected. Let’s look at a few details…
HOT & MAINLY DRY OVER NEXT FEW DAYS… Our next notable rain chances will come by Wednesday of the upcoming week. Other than a few pop up, very isolated showers and storms in the afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday, MOST of us will remain dry. High temperatures will consistently be in the mid-90s with morning lows around 70°.
OUTLOOK FOR HURRICANE SEASON… NOAA is projecting a near normal hurricane season with 9-15 tropical storms, 4-8 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes for the Atlantic basin. The basin includes the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and the northern Atlantic Ocean. The long-term averages are 12 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. One factor (out of many) that goes into a seasonal hurricane forecast is the presence of El Nino or La Nina conditions. Right now, we’re in a weak El Nino phase, which typically tends to slightly suppress tropical cyclone activity.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD MEXICO… Again, we’re not expecting any direct local impacts from this system (regardless of development) in Alabama or northwest Florida. Whether development happens or not, this will be a big time rain event for areas in Mexico just south of Texas.
POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN BAY OF CAMPECHE… The National Hurricane Center says there is now a 20 to 30 percent chance of a tropical storm developing in the southern tier of the Gulf of Mexico near the coastline of the nation of Mexico over the next 2 to 5 days. This is the area of the Gulf of Mexico known as the Bay of Campeche. It is not uncommon to see early season tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf. Right now, the area of low pressure is situated on the Yucatan Peninsula, slowly moving to the west. The broad center of the area of low pressure will emerge over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche likely on Sunday. To get a tropical storm, two main things would need to happen. 1) There would need to be consistent bursts of convection or thunderstorms. 2) A low-level center of circulation would need to form. Many times with these very early season tropical disturbances, you’ll get plenty of convection with no low-level center, thus no designation as a tropical storm. At the moment, that is the MOST likely scenario.
DOES THIS MEAN ACTIVE SEASON? NOT NECESSARILY… Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that just because we’re seeing activity this early in the season that this will be a hyperactive hurricane season. Could we have an active season? Yes. Is it likely at this point? No. In fact, the recent NOAA hurricane season outlook calls for a “near normal” Atlantic hurricane season, meaning 10-12 tropical storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. I’m sure the fear mongers will be out in full force in the days ahead preaching fake major hurricane stories set to impact the United States. Again, don’t buy into it. Let’s take it day by day and we’ll bring you the facts and the very latest information.
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES… The first name on the 2019 tropical cyclone naming list was Andrea, which was used for a weak subtropical storm that formed southwest of Bermuda a few weeks ago. The next name that will be assigned to a storm will be Barry. The remainder of the list for 2019: Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy. The only time a naming list has run out of names was in the 2005 season. If that happens, the next names on the list are the Greek alphabet. (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, etc.)
Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great weekend!