TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM IN NEXT 2-3 DAYS… A few quick midday Tuesday notes on the developing tropical system.
1) The National Hurricane Center continues to suggest this area of low pressure emerging over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico near the Big Bend region of Florida has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical storm as it moves southwest over the next 24-48 hours.
2) Significant impacts are NOT expected across the Hurricane Michael-damaged regions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia, other than occasional heavy rain and rip currents at the local beaches.
3) Impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be limited to heavy rain at times later this week into this weekend, dangerous rip currents and high waves at the local beaches, and breezy conditions at the coast. This is valid IF the current forecast verifies! IF we have significant track projection adjustments more to the east, our local impacts will increase.
4) All folks in Louisiana (especially west of the greater New Orleans area) and east Texas should really start focusing on this system as impacts are likely in those areas later this week into the weekend, based on the latest guidance we have. Isolated tornadoes, gusty winds, and flash flooding will all be concerns. Let me stress again that IF the track of this system ends up being a bit farther to the east, we will have bigger problems farther to the east in our local area.
5) Above is the new information as of Noon Tuesday. Below is some refresher info from my previous posts. Please help me get the word out about the Blue Angels forecast. Please tag a friend if you know they’re headed to the beach this weekend.
MY THOUGHTS ON YOUR VACATION PLANS… I’ve had several questions about folks wondering about their vacation plans to our area beaches this weekend. See more details about the Blue Angels shows in the detailed paragraph below. I can’t give specific advice as to whether you should postpone your vacation plans or not, but what I can tell you is there is a high likelihood that much of the daytime hours of Saturday could have scattered showers and thunderstorms around. Rain amounts this weekend could top 3-4” in total from Friday through Sunday. If you can, I would wait to make a decision about postponing a trip until Wednesday or Thursday when more details are available.
BLUE ANGELS FORECAST… Like many of you, I am proud that the Blue Angels call Pensacola home! The big Pensacola Beach Blue Angels Air Show is later this week into this weekend. Here’s what you need to know in terms of the weather forecast: Wednesday for “Breakfast with the Blues” at 8AM should be fine. Scattered clouds are expected but most of the pop-up storms will happen later in the day on Wednesday. Thursday will be the practice show at 2PM. Scattered thunderstorms are expected and it’s too early to know when and where those will happen. Friday will also feature a practice run at 2PM at Pensacola Beach. There could be scattered to numerous thunderstorms around. The main Blue Angels show is scheduled to happen Saturday at 2PM. Unfortunately, rain chances are high. It’s not a certainty that there will be rain and storms around, but it is a likelihood at this point. Be sure to check back with me later this week for an update on the Blues!
NOT UNPRECEDENTED STORM MOTION/DEVELOPMENT… Many people have asked questions about just how rare it is to have a developing area of low pressure moving from the inland areas of the Southeastern U.S. over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. “Home grown” systems like this are not uncommon as one might think. Weakening cold fronts often stall and will spin up a tropical system close to land. Hurricane Arthur in 2014 had a similar situation in its genesis. A tropical area of low pressure developed over land before emerging over the Atlantic Ocean and developing into what would become Hurricane Arthur. That’s just one example. There have been other systems, even in the Gulf of Mexico, that have developed due to a feature moving off land and over the warm waters of the Gulf. I think the difference here is people are seeing the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center and more people are actually aware of how a tropical storm may form.
POP-UP STORMS & BIG TIME HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY… Scattered afternoon and evening pop-up thunderstorms will continue to be a daily fixture in our weather forecast over the next 3-4 days before we start observing a likely increase in rain/storm chances due to the likely tropical storm passing to our south. The storms through Thursday have nothing to do with the tropical feature. These will be the “daily deluge” of showers and thunderstorms that are primarily influenced/develop because of the seabreeze that moves in daily from the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures will continue to be in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s.
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I’ll have more updates throughout the afternoon and evening in the RedZone Weather app.