TROPICAL STORM TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH; TORNADO RISK AT THE COAST ON THURSDAY… Local impacts, specifically isolated tornadoes, could happen at and near the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline as early as Thursday as what will likely be Tropical Storm Barry passes by our area in the Gulf of Mexico. We continue to monitor the developing area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf now moving to the west. Landfall will most likely happen later this week or this weekend in Louisana. Rain chances are slated to remain HIGH for our local area through Saturday, including this afternoon/evening when showers and thunderstorms will be numerous. I’ll have updates throughout the day as needed here on Facebook and many more in the RedZone Weather app.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS DUE TO LIKELY TROPICAL STORM… Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding, isolated tornadoes near the immediate beach zones, high waves and dangerous rip currents, and breezy conditions at the beaches are the expected impacts in our local area. This paragraph specifically applies to south Alabama and northwest Florida. If you’re reading this in Mississippi, Louisiana, or Texas, you should consult with your local National Weather Service for specifics there.
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK INCREASES LOCALLY… The Storm Prediction Center now includes areas south of Interstate 10 in our local area in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone valid for Thursday into Friday where a few, brief, spin-up tornadoes may happen in the outer rain bands of what will likely be Tropical Storm Barry. This risk will likely carry over into the daytime hours of Friday as well. The risk of isolated tornadoes will likely decrease Saturday into Sunday as the tropical storm moves away.
VERY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES OVER NEXT FEW DAYS… We’ve adjusted rain chances higher for Wednesday and Thursday as the influence of the area of low pressure grows across our area. The local National Weather Service notes that flash flooding may become possible by Friday into Saturday when rain amounts will really start stacking up. Areas near the immediate beaches may have 3 to 4 inches of rain through Monday, while inland areas will likely have 1-2” of rain. Flash flood watches may be needed this weekend.
LOUISIANA LANDFALL POSSIBLE… All folks in Louisiana (especially west of the greater New Orleans area) and east Texas should really start focusing on this system as impacts are likely in those areas later this week into the weekend, based on the latest guidance we have. Isolated tornadoes, gusty winds, and flash flooding will all be concerns. Let me stress again that IF the track of this system ends up being a bit farther to the east, we will have bigger problems farther to the east in our local area. The latest model guidance points to a weekend landfall in Louisiana, perhaps west of the New Orleans area. Southern Mississippi should also keep close tabs on this, as the system will likely lift northward near or through there this weekend.
BLUE ANGELS FORECAST… Like many of you, I am proud that the Blue Angels call Pensacola home! The big Pensacola Beach Blue Angels Air Show is later this week into this weekend. Here’s what you need to know in terms of the weather forecast: Wednesday for “Breakfast with the Blues” at 8AM should be fine. Scattered clouds are expected but most of the pop-up storms will happen later in the day on Wednesday. Thursday will be the practice show at 2PM. Scattered thunderstorms are expected and it’s too early to know when and where those will happen. Friday will also feature a practice run at 2PM at Pensacola Beach. There could be scattered to numerous thunderstorms around. The main Blue Angels show is scheduled to happen Saturday at 2PM. Unfortunately, rain chances are high. It’s not a certainty that there will be rain and storms around, but it is a likelihood at this point. Be sure to check back with me later this week for an update on the Blues!
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