FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON; TROPICAL UPDATE… Isolated pop-up thunderstorms are likely to happen this afternoon across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida, especially closer to the coast. Rain chances for any given spot remain at 10% or less, meaning vast majority of us will remain dry throughout the day. Rain chances are slated to increase slightly over the next several days, but that is NOT because of the tropical system we are monitoring. The storms that pop up locally will be seabreeze-induced. Here are the details about the tropics…
INVEST 95L IN THE CARIBBEAN… The National Hurricane Center continues to suggest there is a 10-20% chance of a tropical storm developing in the east-central Caribbean Sea or southwestern Atlantic Ocean near/over The Bahamas this week as a tropical wave lifts to the northwest toward the Florida Peninsula. This tropical wave has been branded as INVEST 95L.
95L: BIG RAIN AHEAD FOR PUERTO RICO… INVEST 95L is currently producing heavy rain and thunderstorms across much of the Lesser Antilles just southeast of Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Much of the cloud cover depicted on the visible satellite imagery is upper-level clouds. I suspect that once this burst of convection fades, it will reveal the true nature of the system: Weak and fairly unorganized as of now. The system will move northwest in the days ahead, likely dropping excessive rainfall across Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.
95L: UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNFAVORABLE… Based on the latest model data, it certainly seems like the environment ahead of INVEST 95L will be fairly hostile and not majorly supportive of tropical storm formation later this week. This is because of winds higher in the atmosphere, aka atmospheric wind shear, that will likely rip the system apart at least somewhat as it moves over The Bahamas.
95L: IMPACTS UNLIKELY IN SOUTH ALABAMA OR NORTHWEST FLORIDA… There is no cause for panic, worry, or even giving this system much thought in our local area. There is very high chance, at this point, that direct local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida won’t ever happen because of this system. The ECMWF (Euro) model barely develops this system before lifting it rapidly northeast away from the United States. The legacy version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) does develop this system east of Florida before indicating a rapid move out into the open waters of the Atlantic.
APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download our free RedZone Weather app. Social networks don’t guarantee that you will see our forecast content or urgent warnings. That is why we have the RZW app available for you. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me. We encourage everyone to turn on “Medium-Level Alerts.” If you like a lot of notifications, turn on Low-Level Alerts too.
See all the details and graphics in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a nice Monday!