TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEKEND IN ATLANTIC… The tropical wave currently situated about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa continues to slowly become more organized. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a 70% chance that this tropical wave will strengthen into a tropical storm this weekend. While it is far too early to give any concrete guidance on where this storm will ultimately end up, there are two bits of good news to discuss this evening. Read on for a full, detailed tropical update…
INVEST 96L IN THE ATLANTIC LIKELY TO DEVELOP… There is a 7 out of 10 chance that we’ll have a tropical storm moving toward the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico by Sunday. The system is currently a tropical wave producing an area of disturbed weather about 1,100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles/Leeward Islands. The system has been branded as INVEST 96L. Upper-level winds will become favorable for the development of a tropical storm this weekend, but the good news is shear is forecast to increase ahead of the developing system early next week.
FUTURE INTENSITY ALL OVER THE BOARD… We don’t have a good grasp, at this point, of just how weak or how strong INVEST 96L will ultimately be. Some of the model guidance last evening suggested that the system could ramp up to a category 1 hurricane, but vast majority of the model guidance today has suggested that the system may not get much stronger than a minimal tropical storm. This type of uncertainty is to be expected in this stage before the system has formally developed. Models just can’t get get a good grip of the situation until a low-level circulation center has formed. Big takeaway here is that we don’t know just yet how weak or strong the system will be. This is something we’ll keep a close watch on.
VERY EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A NORTHERLY TURN… Long time viewers and readers know that I don’t put much, if any, stock in any weather model guidance 7 days out or greater. There is simply too much variability in the atmosphere that often causes extreme model error in that range. No doubt, models are getting better every year, but we still have a long way to go in weather forecasting beyond the 7 day range. I am encouraged, however, that most of the major global weather models have consistently suggested that IF INVEST 96L develops, it will potentially take a northerly turn well before reaching south Florida. This would obviously mean that there would be little to no Gulf of Mexico impacts IF that turns out to be correct. A lot can and will change over the next few days as we get more data in about this system.
INVEST 95L REMAINS WEAK… The totally distinct tropical wave currently bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of south Florida and The Bahamas remains fairly unorganized. NHC continues to give the system a 0-10% chance of development into a tropical storm as it moves north, basically paralleling the east/Atlantic coast of Florida over the next 3 days. The system is expected to turn northeastward and move out to sea this weekend. I would be very surprised at this point if that system actually develops.
LOCAL WEATHER TO BE CONSISTENT… No tropical or hurricane issues are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida over the next 5-7 days. Our weather pattern will remain quite monotonous this weekend into early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a fixture of our weather pattern in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s.
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