DORIAN PATH A BIT FARTHER NORTH; FLORIDA PENINSULA IMPACTS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… Tropical Storm Dorian is now in the eastern Caribbean Sea between Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles. The system is moving northwest and will likely emerge over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean late Wednesday or early Thursday. Confidence continues to increase that Dorian will move northwest and approach the Florida Peninsula Saturday into Sunday. What we don’t have a higher confidence on is just how strong or weak the system will be when it arrives near the Atlantic coastline of Florida. Some models suggest a category 2 hurricane, while most show a tropical storm. We’re also looking ahead to gauge whether Gulf impacts will be possible due to Dorian, although unfortunately it’s still a bit too early to say anything about that with certainty. Let’s look at your headlines this evening.
STRONG STORMS HAPPENING OVER WEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING… Loud, strong thunderstorms are rolling through parts of west Alabama this evening in Monroe, Clarke, Wilcox, Choctaw, and Washington counties. We just had a shelf cloud photo sent in via Lane Warren from Leroy/St. Stephens. That post is available to see in the RedZone Weather app. Storms will continue rolling into parts of Conecuh, Butler, Escambia (AL), and Covington counties over the next few hours. Don’t be surprised to hear one more round of very heavy rain, loud thunder, lots of lightning, and gusty winds before you go to sleep. Severe weather is not expected tonight.
DORIAN: TUESDAY EVENING LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION… Several models, including the ECMWF/Euro model, show the potential for Dorian crossing the Florida Peninsula this weekend and entering the northeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. That is NOT a certainty at this point, but it is an idea on the table. The American-based Global Forecast System model (GFS) shows Dorian meandering near the Florida Atlantic coast before making a landfall near Savannah, Georgia early next week. The Canadian model shows a mixture (of sorts) between these ideas, with the center crossing the Florida Atlantic coast between the Space Coast and Jacksonville before Dorian completely fizzles out to the east of our local area. We simply do not know whether Dorian will affect south Alabama or northwest Florida just yet. I would encourage everyone reading this to check back with me multiple times daily over the next several days for the latest information. I hope we’re able to get more information that will completely rule out local impacts, but that has not been the trend so far today. We’ll keep you posted in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.
DORIAN: TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH; INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS LOW… This feels like an all too common scenario. We know, with fairly high confidence, where Dorian is headed over the next 5 days. There is some variability as we go into the weekend about exactly where Dorian ends up. Dorian will move between an area of high pressure to the east and an upper-level low pressure area to the west. It’s riding the weakness in between these two atmospheric features. What we do not have a grip on at this point is how strong or how weak Dorian will be in the coming days. Dorian could be a high-end category 2 hurricane or a low-end tropical storm. The dynamical models have consistently painted a picture showing a weaker solution while the intensity models have suggested a more powerful system.
HURRICANE WATCH & TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO… The entirety of Puerto Rico is under a Hurricane Watch AND a Tropical Storm Warning as Dorian approaches. The same holds true for the U.S. Virgin Islands and parts of the Dominican Republic. A Hurricane Watch will probably be needed for parts of the Turks & Caicos islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday or Thursday. A Tropical Storm Watch or Hurricane Watch will probably be needed for parts of the east coast of Florida on Friday.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX… T.D. Six is located about halfway between Bermuda and the Carolina coastline in the Atlantic Ocean. The system will likely become Tropical Storm Erin in the days ahead as it gradually then rapidly lifts northeast away from land areas. There is a chance that TD6/Erin could make landfall in Canada in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. Significant direct local impacts in Alabama or Florida are not expected.
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My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday morning. Be sure to check back with me then for the very latest on Tropical Storm Dorian. Have a great evening!
