WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: DORIAN NOW A HURRICANE; MISSES PUERTO RICO TO THE EAST; INTENSIFICATION LIKELY… Dorian has strengthened into a category 1 hurricane this afternoon with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center now says Dorian will approach the Florida Atlantic coast as a major hurricane this weekend. While we still have quite a bit of uncertainty as to just how strong Dorian will be at landfall AND where Dorian will ultimately end up, I am encouraged that model trends have been positive for south Alabama and northwest Florida today. All of the major weather models, including the ECMWF/Euro, now suggest the core of Dorian will remain to the east of our local area as we go into next week. We’re not completely “out of the woods” just yet, but the trends have been encouraging. Let’s look at some Wednesday afternoon details…
DORIAN CURRENT INFO… Hurricane Dorian is packing maximum sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gusts near the center of the storm. As of 1PM CDT, the center of Dorian was located at 18.3N and 65.0W. Minimum central pressure is down to 997 millibars, indicating strengthening is happening. Dorian is moving northwest at 13 mph. We note the center is directly over St. Croix and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
CENTER OF DORIAN MISSES PUERTO RICO TO THE EAST; INTENSIFICATION LIKELY… 2-3 days ago, there was some hope that the core of Dorian would be disrupted by the high, rugged terrain of Hispaniola. Yesterday, there was hope that Dorian would be somewhat disrupted by the hills and mountains of Puerto Rico. Today, it is clear that the center of Dorian will miss the land areas to the east and have an unhindered path to strengthening over the next 24-72 hours. Definitely not the scenario that anyone wanted. Land interaction will have very little to no effect on the developing storm. Dorian will continue to emerge over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean in the next 12 hours as it continues moving to the northwest.
WATCHES & WARNINGS DISCUSSION… A Hurricane Warning continues for all of the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and Vieques & Culebra. Puerto Rico continues to be under a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning. Hurricane Watches will be needed for the Turks & Caicos islands and parts of The Bahamas later this evening or on Thursday. Hurricane Watches will become necessary for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida probably on Friday or Saturday morning.
MIDDAY LOOK AT POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… Let me start here by saying we are not “out of the woods” just yet. Please do NOT take what I’m about to say as “set in stone.” Trends are encouraging, but you can bet trends can and will change. Forecasting tropical storms and hurricanes is incredibly challenging and model data often wildly shifts based on new input. I am highly encouraged this afternoon that NO major weather model shows Dorian coming close to south Alabama or northwest Florida as of midday Wednesday. We looked at the ECMWF/Euro model last night, which had a scenario showing a decaying Dorian approaching our area by Wednesday of next week. The Euro model, like the GFS, Canadian, and others, now shows a scenario where Dorian will harass the eastern coastal areas of Florida before making a sharp, right, northerly turn. This means that all of the Florida Peninsula, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina need to closely monitor the progress of this system. We need to closely monitor trends over the next few days. It’s still very much “up in the air” where Dorian ends up.
MAJOR HURRICANE IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN EAST FLORIDA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center now states that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a category 3, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts!
APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I’ll have another detailed update later this evening on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice afternoon!
