HURRICANE DORIAN LIKELY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND; GULF IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN… Hurricane Dorian continues to gain strength this evening as it emerges over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Model trends over the last 6-8 hours have been discouraging for our local area, to say the least, although as I often caution, we need to focus on the overall trends and not individual model runs. The Florida Peninsula has a very high chance of having direct impacts from Dorian when the system will very likely be a major hurricane this weekend into Monday. Beyond that, we still do not have a firm grasp of where Dorian ends up.
SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA: POTENTIAL DORIAN IMPACTS DISCUSSION… The big takeaway as far as potential local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains that we still do not know whether direct local impacts from Dorian will happen, although the latest model runs point to that being still in the realm of possibilities. Earlier today, I mentioned that the Euro/ECMWF model had featured encouraging trends showing the system remaining to the east of our area, cautioning that further model changes were likely. Indeed, those changes happened. The latest run (12Z) of the Euro/ECMWF model shows a substantial (perhaps category 2 or 3) hurricane slamming into south Florida followed by an emergence over the southern Gulf of Mexico then a rapid turn to the northwest with a potential landfall as a major hurricane in northwest Florida late next week. That is ONE idea from ONE run of ONE model, but I type that out to say: We are, by NO means, “out of the woods” just yet. It’s important to comparatively note that the GFS and Canadian models show a much different scenario, with Dorian making a Florida Peninsula landfall much farther north then very slowly weakening in the days that follow with little to no local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Again, the big headline here is: Please keep checking back with me for forecast updates in the days ahead. The situation is fluid and evolving rapidly.
4PM ADVISORY ON HURRICANE DORIAN… Hurricane Dorian is packing maximum sustained winds of 80 mph with higher gusts near the center of the storm. As of 4PM CDT, the center of Dorian was located at 18.8N and 65.5W. Minimum central pressure is down to 997 millibars, indicating strengthening is happening. Dorian is moving northwest at 14 mph. The center of Dorian has recently emerged over the southwestern Atlantic just to the north of the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Some review information from my previous Noon post…
MAJOR HURRICANE IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN EAST FLORIDA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center now states that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a category 3, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts!
CENTER OF DORIAN MISSES PUERTO RICO TO THE EAST; INTENSIFICATION LIKELY… 2-3 days ago, there was some hope that the core of Dorian would be disrupted by the high, rugged terrain of Hispaniola. Yesterday, there was hope that Dorian would be somewhat disrupted by the hills and mountains of Puerto Rico. Today, it is clear that the center of Dorian will miss the land areas to the east and have an unhindered path to strengthening over the next 24-72 hours. Definitely not the scenario that anyone wanted. Land interaction will have very little to no effect on the developing storm.
WATCHES & WARNINGS DISCUSSION… A Hurricane Warning continues for all of the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and Vieques & Culebra. Puerto Rico continues to be under a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning. Hurricane Watches will be needed for the Turks & Caicos islands and parts of The Bahamas later this evening or on Thursday. Hurricane Watches will become necessary for parts of the Atlantic coast of Florida probably on Friday or Saturday morning.
APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I’ll have another detailed update later this evening on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice afternoon!