HURRICANE DORIAN APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS; LOCAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON… Hurricane Dorian is slowly moving westward into the northeastern Bahamas as a dangerous major hurricane capable of causing potentially catastrophic damage. While the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center does continue to keep the center of Dorian offshore from the Florida Peninsula at the moment, there is still considerable uncertainty as to where this slow-moving, dangerous hurricane will end up. There IS still a significant chance that a Florida landfall could happen. There is also a chance for landfall in parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina over the next few days. What I can tell you with high confidence on this Sunday morning is that Dorian will very likely never directly affect Alabama or northwest Florida. That is great news for our local area. We will have thunderstorms around this afternoon with some big time heat on the way for the middle part of the week. Let’s look at details…
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON & THIS EVENING… Rain and storms will become likely as we go into the afternoon and evening hours on this Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Some of the storms may be on the strong side, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and lots of lightning. High temperatures will peak in the low-90s in most spots.
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY… I expect most locales across south Alabama and northwest Florida to remain dry for Labor Day Monday. We should have a good amount of sunshine throughout the day. There is a small (20%) chance of rain & storms, primarily likely to happen in the afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather is not expected. High temperatures will be around 93°.
BUILDING HEAT & LOWER RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK… High pressure will exert its influence in a big way across our region as we go into the middle and latter half of the week. High temperatures by Wednesday could rise into the mid- to upper-90s with ample sunshine likely. Sunny skies are also likely on Thursday and Friday with high temperatures again making a run at the upper-90s.
DORIAN: SUNDAY MORNING – POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION… There is an extremely high chance that south Alabama and northwest Florida will never have any significant impacts from Hurricane Dorian. Model trends have been highly consistent in the last 2-3 days in keeping the core of Dorian well to our east. I will continue to closely monitor the latest raw model output and specific forecasts for any notable changes, but as of Sunday morning, ALL of the indications I have point to this hurricane completely missing our area to the east. Great news! Interests in the Florida Peninsula, eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Dorian. This is as close as I can give to an “all clear” without actually saying the words.
Below is some review information from my previous posts that remains right on target. These paragraphs have been lightly edited to support the latest information.
HURRICANE DORIAN IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, CAROLINAS… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center continues to suggest that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a very dangerous major hurricane on Labor Day Monday into Tuesday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane. We also note that South Carolina and North Carolina residents should keep close tabs on Dorian in the days ahead. More rapid intensification is not out of the question. Don’t get so caught up in the category number (whether it’s a 3, 4, or 5) that you forget that potentially EXTREME impacts could happen in some of these areas! Florida Peninsula residents SHOULD NOT let their guard down despite the positive trend of the forecast cone of uncertainty moving somewhat eastward yesterday.
30% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center is also keeping an eye on an area of low pressure currently situated between western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. This low pressure area will move westward in the days ahead into the southern Gulf, just to the north of the Bay of Campeche. Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical storm may form by Wednesday or Thursday before the system moves west into northern Mexico. NHC says there is a 30% chance of tropical storm formation. This system will likely not directly affect south Alabama or northwest Florida.
60% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN ATLANTIC… There is now a 60% chance of a tropical storm developing near the Cabo Verde (formerly known as the Cape Verde) Islands in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near Africa in the days ahead. A tropical wave emerged off of the African continent yesterday. This system will likely move northwest in the days ahead. We note that long-term model trends continue to show this system moving into the open waters of the Atlantic and affecting no land areas. Great news!
APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the graphics and details in this special Sunday morning edition of your RedZone Weather forecast video… Have a great day!