LONG POST: DORIAN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BAHAMAS; NORTHERLY TURN STARTS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW… Hurricane Dorian continues to lash the northern Bahamas on this Labor Day with 155+ mph wind gusts, relentless storm surge, and heavy rainfall. While Dorian has “weakened” slightly, I am hesitant to use that word as the system remains a VERY powerful, high-end, category 4 hurricane. The overall satellite presentation of Hurricane Dorian remains consistent and quite impressive this morning. The storm has lost its defined concentric eyewalls, per the latest technical discussion from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). That probably is an indicator that an eyewall replacement cycle may have started or is about to start, which may help to progressively weaken this powerful hurricane. The latest cone of uncertainty from NHC as of 11AM EDT shows the most likely scenario being the center of Dorian remaining JUST offshore from Florida through Thursday. NHC notes in their discussion, “It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the hurricane warning area. In addition, Dorian’s wind field is predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer to the east coast of Florida even if the track does not change.” Significant Dorian impacts are also possible in parts of eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week.
“WHEN DOES THE NORTHERLY TURN START?” AND OTHER F.A.Qs. The most frequently asked question I’ve had this morning and over the last 24 hours is, “When will Dorian start moving north?” This would get Dorian on its projected path ultimately to the north and northeast. The answer to this question is: Late tonight or early Tuesday. Is there a chance Dorian won’t turn north? Basically, no. I realize there are crazy conspiracy pushers and fear mongers on social media “wishcasting” Dorian into the Gulf of Mexico, but the odds of this happening are basically zero at this point. The significant impacts of Hurricane Dorian will not directly affect south Alabama or northwest Florida.
DORIAN 1PM MONDAY ADVISORY… Hurricane Dorian remains a high-end, powerful category 4 major hurricane with 155 mph sustained winds as of 1PM EDT. The center of the eye of Dorian is located at 26.8N and 78.4W, right over Grand Bahama Island. This is about 110 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Dorian’s forward speed has slowed to a halt, as expected. The hurricane is moving west at 1 (yes, 1) mile per hour. Minimum central pressure is at 922 millibars.
DORIAN NOW A LARGER HURRICANE… If you remember last week, the core of Hurricane Dorian was quite small. That is now no longer the case. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center. This is why inland tropical storm warnings are in effect for parts of the Florida Peninsula. See more about that below.
LATEST ON HURRICANE WARNINGS & WATCHES… The following watches and warnings are valid at Noon CDT on Labor Day Monday, September 2, 2019. As always, please keep tabs on this in a dynamic way. This is one static post and this content is changing rapidly as Dorian starts to move north.
HURRICANE WARNING… A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line in Florida. This is a long swath of Florida coastline included in the Hurricane Warning. Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas remain under a Hurricane Warning as well as the fury of Dorian continues to be felt in these areas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
HURRICANE WATCH… A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the Flagler/Volusia County line northward to the Altamaha Sound in Georgia. There also is a separate Hurricane Watch on the southern end of the warning area from North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING… North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet is the section of coastline under a Tropical Storm Warning in Florida, coinciding with the southern stretch of coastline under the Hurricane Watch. We note that many inland counties in the Florida Peninsula are also under a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH… A small section of the Florida coastline on the southern flank is also under a Tropical Storm Watch, from North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach. Lake Okeechobee is also under a Tropical Storm Watch. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
MOST TO STAY DRY & HOT FOR LABOR DAY LOCALLY… Mostly sunny skies are likely today with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s across the region. There could be a few showers and perhaps a few storms around this afternoon into this evening. Most of us will remain dry and hot throughout the day. We’ll call it a 10-20% chance of showers and storms. No severe weather is expected today or at any point in the next few days.
H-O-T FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK… Temperatures will climb into the upper-90s by Wednesday and Thursday. Some spots may hit 100° on Thursday afternoon. A large dome of high pressure will be in control of our weather pattern, keeping us dry and hot this week. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be close to zero Tuesday through Friday.
TROPICS: GULF LOW MOVING WEST… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a 40-50% chance of a tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico this week and moving westward into northern Mexico. Their official discussion reads, “A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.” This system, regardless of formal development, will not affect south Alabama or northwest Florida.
TROPICS: TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF CABO VERDE ISLANDS… NHC says there is an 90% chance that a tropical storm will form just west of the Cabo Verde Islands this week. Their discussion on this: “Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low pressure system located about 150 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.” Keep in mind, this is very near the African continent and far away from North America. This system is likely to move northwest in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean before fading away in a few days. U.S. impacts are currently highly unlikely, based on the latest model trends.
TROPICS: NEW TROPICAL WAVE TO EMERGE FROM AFRICA… From NHC: “A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward.” NHC gives this system a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm later this week as it moves westward.
TROPICS: DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC APPROACHING BERMUDA… There is a 40-50% chance that a tropical storm will form between Puerto Rico and Bermuda later this week. NHC says, “A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday and has also become better organized this morning. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.” Impacts are not expected for the United States from this potential tropical storm at this time.
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See the graphics, details, and more information about Hurricane Dorian in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Enjoy your Labor Day!
