HOT WEEK AHEAD; TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS IN CARIBBEAN… According to the calendar, we officially kick off the fall/autumn season on Monday. Problem is, we certainly wouldn’t know that by looking at the forecast! We’ve got a HOT, mostly sunny week upcoming. High temperatures may make a run at 100 degrees again by Wednesday and Thursday. Other than a few, rogue showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, we will unfortunately remain dry this week as well. The tropics remain active. We’re tracking newly designated Tropical Storm Karen that has formed over the Lesser Antilles in the far southeastern part of the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Jerry is moving toward Bermuda. In addition, a new tropical storm will likely form later today or on Monday in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. Let’s look at your forecast details…
QUITE HOT THIS WEEK; RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW LOCALLY… While the last two weeks of September and October are climatologically our driest part of each year, it certainly seems like our dry stretch got an early start this year. Unfortunately, temperatures “aren’t cooperating” for many of us either as we head back into the upper-90s starting on Tuesday. Overnight lows will rise into the low-70s by midweek, meaning we’ll feel more like summer than fall in the days ahead. There is a very small chance of a passing shower or storm on Tuesday and on Wednesday, but this will be more of the anomaly than the trend. Vast majority of us will have no rain in the next 7-9 days. This is good news, however, if you have a vacation planned at a local beach. Plenty of sunshine and heat!
TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) started issuing advisories this morning on Tropical Storm Karen, located about 30 miles north of Grenada in the Lesser Antilles. Karen is currently bringing intermittent heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the Lesser Antilles. The system is fairly disorganized right now as is evident on the visible and infrared satellite imagery. No significant strengthening is expected as the system moves north across the eastern Caribbean Sea in the next day or two as upper-level winds remain hostile for further development. Once the system emerges over the southwestern Atlantic later this week, that’s when we could have more strengthening from Karen as the system will be in a much more supportive environment for development.
KAREN: TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO… The entirety of Puerto Rico, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques and Culebra are now under a Tropical Storm Watch. This is in place as the core of Karen is expected to pass through these areas in 2-4 days. We also note that a Tropical Storm Warning is in place for Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines in the southern Caribbean where Tropical Storm Karen is located right now.
KAREN: LONG-TERM UNCERTAINTY… While there is good confidence in the short-term through 3-4 days, beyond that, we don’t currently have a good grip of where Tropical Storm Karen will ultimately end up. Early model indications have been concerning, showing the system stalling in the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico for a few days before making a sharp, left, westerly turn toward The Bahamas. Obviously if that happened, that could become problematic for Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and Cuba, but we’re still several days from realizing whether that is a plausible scenario. Further model guidance may shift to the right and take the system out to sea. The big takeaway here is that we just don’t know yet where Karen ends up. I’ll keep you posted with the latest information in the RedZone Weather app.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY TO SLIDE BY BERMUDA… Unlike Karen, we can conclusively say that Tropical Storm Jerry WILL NOT affect the United States with direct impacts. Good news! Unfortunately for our friends in Bermuda, it looks like the island commonwealth may take a direct hit from Jerry. The good news is Jerry is likely to be significantly weaker than Hurricane Humberto, which adversely affected the island last week. Jerry will probably be in a similar position to Humberto, passing just to the north of Bermuda by Tuesday and Wednesday. Again, no local impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida from Jerry!
HIGH CHANCE OF NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN EAST ATLANTIC… There is a tropical wave that has just emerged from Africa in the far eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean. NHC notes that environmental conditions are highly conducive for tropical development in this area near the Cabo Verde Islands. There is a 90% chance that we’ll have a new tropical storm forming tonight or tomorrow. The next name on the tropical cyclone naming list is Lorenzo. It’s too early to know where this system will end up, but early model trends have been encouraging by showing a system that recurves into the open Atlantic and remaining far away from land areas. We’ll
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See all the graphics and details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!