HOT DAYS AHEAD; TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVING NORTH IN CARIBBEAN… Today is the first day of astronomical fall/autumn, although you certainly wouldn’t know it just by looking at the forecast for today or the next week. Increasingly hot, humid conditions will be in place through the upcoming weekend. High temperatures are slated to be in the upper-90s later this week with overnight lows rising again into the low-70s. We continue to monitor Tropical Storm Karen in the eastern Caribbean Sea near the Lesser Antilles. Karen will move north toward Puerto Rico over the next 48 hours. Beyond that, there is ample uncertainty about what will ultimately happen with Karen. Some models have suggested a potential path into the Gulf of Mexico perhaps in about a week while other models show the system turning right and heading out to sea. We’re also watching a new, developing tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic. This is hurricane season, meaning this type of thing is certainly to be expected. Let’s talk details…
HOT WEEK AHEAD WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN… While the last two weeks of September and October are climatologically our driest part of each year, it certainly seems like our dry stretch got an early start this year. Unfortunately, temperatures “aren’t cooperating” for many of us either as we head back into the upper-90s starting on Tuesday. Overnight lows will rise into the low-70s by midweek, meaning we’ll feel more like summer than fall in the days ahead. There is a very small chance of a passing shower or storm on Tuesday and on Wednesday, but this will be more of the anomaly than the trend. Vast majority of us will have no rain in the next 7-9 days. This is good news, however, if you have a vacation planned at a local beach. Plenty of sunshine and heat!
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC… The National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories late last evening on Tropical Depression 13, located in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands. This system will become Tropical Storm Lorenzo later today. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) notes there is no obvious environmental factors to prevent strengthening. There’s a good chance this system will become a hurricane, and perhaps even a major hurricane, as it moves northwest in the next 3-5 days. It is far too early to know conclusively whether this system will remain away from land, but I am encouraged by early model trends that show TD13/Lorenzo being well away from North America during the duration of its existence. Most models recurve the system into the open waters of the north Atlantic Ocean. We’ll keep watching.
KAREN: TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO… The entirety of Puerto Rico, the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques and Culebra are now under a Tropical Storm Watch. This is in place as the core of Karen is expected to pass through these areas in the next 48-72 hours. This watch will become a Tropical Storm Warning later today.
KAREN: LONG-TERM UNCERTAINTY… While there is good confidence in the short-term through 3-4 days, beyond that, we don’t currently have a good grip of where Tropical Storm Karen will ultimately end up. Early model indications have been concerning, showing the system stalling in the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico for a few days before making a sharp, left, westerly turn toward The Bahamas. Obviously if that happened, that could become problematic for Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and Cuba, but we’re still several days from realizing whether that is a plausible scenario. Further model guidance may shift to the right and take the system out to sea. The big takeaway here is that we just don’t know yet where Karen ends up. I’ll keep you posted with the latest information in the RedZone Weather app.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY TO SLIDE BY BERMUDA… Unlike Karen, we can conclusively say that Tropical Storm Jerry WILL NOT affect the United States with direct impacts. Good news! Unfortunately for our friends in Bermuda, it looks like the island commonwealth may take a direct hit from Jerry. The good news is Jerry is likely to be significantly weaker than Hurricane Humberto, which adversely affected the island last week. Jerry will probably be in a similar position to Humberto, passing just to the north of Bermuda by Tuesday and Wednesday. Again, no local impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida from Jerry!
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
See all the graphics and details in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!