PTC16/NESTOR TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA… RZW Exec members, good Thursday evening. I have just finished a highly detailed forecast analysis concerning Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, aka what will likely become Tropical Storm Nestor in the hours ahead. The big headlines for our local area (south Alabama and northwest Florida) remain: 1) This will be a good, soaking rain event late Friday into Saturday for our region. 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in total will be possible, with the greater amounts near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. 2) The tornado risk remains very low, if not zero, in most spots locally as this system approaches. 3) Significant wind impacts are not expected across our inland areas. There could be gusty (30-50 mph) winds near the immediate coastline. Please see the highly detailed information below that I will be posting publicly shortly. Below is a map of the projected rainfall amounts for the next 3 days. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or concerns!
*EXTREMELY DETAILED* LOOK AT LOCAL PTC16/NESTOR IMPACTS… Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 continues to develop in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as of 4:28PM on Thursday. The system is expected to become Tropical Storm (or Subtropical Storm) Nestor in the hours ahead. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance (Hurricane Hunter) aircraft is currently investigating the system to see if a low-level circulation center has formed. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for our entire local coastline as gusty winds may happen late Friday into Saturday as PTC16/Nestor approaches from the southwest. This will mostly be a rainmaker for south Alabama and northwest Florida and not much else, although gusty winds and coastal flooding will be possible at the immediate beach zones. This is a long, detailed post with an area-by-area analysis of what you can expect because of this developing tropical storm.
4PM THURSDAY ADVISORY… Maximum winds are at 40mph, meaning the system will take the name “Nestor” once a low-level circulation center forms. Further strengthening is anticipated in the hours ahead and PTC16/Nestor will likely be packing maximum sustained winds of 50-60 mph once it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle late Friday or Saturday. 25.4° N and 86.4° W is where the center of circulation is located as of 4PM. That is 570 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River in southern Louisiana. Movement continues to be north-northeast at 9 mph. The system is expected to rapidly move toward the northern Gulf Coast in the hours ahead.
THURSDAY EARLY EVENING DISCUSSION ABOUT LOCAL IMPACTS… Heavy rain will become increasingly likely on Friday afternoon and evening, particularly across coastal counties. Rain will spread inland throughout the evening. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of how quickly rain will move inland. This, obviously, has big ramifications for the high school football games that are scheduled for Friday evening. The good news is we’re not expecting tornadoes or high winds in our local area on Friday evening. There is a high chance that the center of PTC16/Nestor remains to the southeast of our local area as it approaches the Florida Panhandle on Friday, meaning the more volatile east side of the system would remain to our east. Thus, confidence is high that tornadoes and high winds won’t be an issue for our area unless significant forecast track changes happen. That is not expected to happen at this time. Gusty (30-50 mph) winds will be possible at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches Friday evening into Saturday. Wind impacts are not expected across inland areas at this time, but there will be a breeze from the east on Friday into Saturday. Confidence is high that rain amounts will be highest south and east of Interstate 65 on Friday into Saturday where 2-3” of rain in total could happen. This is a GOOD thing as this will help to alleviate drought conditions.
REMINDER: TROPICAL VS. SUBTROPICAL STORM… The best analogy I can give you about the differences in a tropical storm versus a subtropical storm involves vehicles. Think of a tropical storm as a Toyota RAV4. (That is what I drive.) A normal car gets you where you’re going by burning gasoline. Think of a subtropical storm as a hybrid Toyota RAV4. A hybrid vehicle uses additional technology to get better fuel economy, but it is still a car. Both tropical and subtropical storms have pretty much the SAME impacts for coastal areas: Heavy rain, gusty winds, and coastal flooding. The difference is tropical systems have a pure warm core center, while subtropical storms generally don’t (at least at first). It’s a super technical definition, but the big takeaway I want you to remember is that IMPACTS are the same!
COUNTY-BY-COUNTY FORECAST…
The following county-by-county forecasts are based on the CURRENT projected path of PTC16/Nestor, showing a landfall as a moderate tropical storm near Panama City, Florida on Saturday morning. Future advisories may cause the following impacts to have to be adjusted upward or downward, depending on the exact track of the storm. In addition, please see the specific area forecasts below the county-by-county analysis below.
OKALOOSA COUNTY, FL…
Locations: Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, Laurel Hill.
Wind Speed: 35-55mph winds possible, with gusts up to 65mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along Choctawhatchee Bay. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Fort Walton Beach and Destin may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 45-65mph.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 9PM Friday and extend to Noon Saturday. Core risk time will be Midnight to 8AM Saturday.
Rain: 2-5”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and Niceville.
Tornado Risk: Low.
Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning.
SANTA ROSA COUNTY, FL…
Locations: Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown.
Wind Speed: 30-50mph winds possible, with gusts up to 60mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along the bays. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Gulf Breeze and Navarre may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 40-60mph.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 9PM Friday and extend to Noon Saturday. Core risk time will be Midnight to 8AM Saturday.
Rain: 2-4”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Gulf Breeze and Navarre.
Tornado Risk: Low.
Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning.
ESCAMBIA COUNTY, FL…
Locations: Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid.
Wind Speed: 25-45mph winds possible, with gusts up to 55mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along the bays. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Pensacola Beach may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 40-60mph.
Rain: 2-4”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Pensacola, Warrington, Perdido Key, and Pensacola Beach.
Tornado Risk: Low.
Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning.
BALDWIN COUNTY, AL…
Locations: Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear.
Wind Speed: 20-40mph winds possible. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along the bays. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Fort Morgan may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 30-40mph.
Rain: 2-4”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Fort Morgan.
Tornado Risk: Very Low.
Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning for areas south of Interstate 10.
MOBILE COUNTY, AL…
Locations: Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, Grand Bay.
Wind Speed: 20-40mph winds possible. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along the bays. Wind speeds likely to be substantially less in inland communities. Areas near Bayou La Batre, Coden, and Dauphin Island may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 30-40mph.
Rain: 2-3”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Bayou La Batre, Coden, and Dauphin Island.
Tornado Risk: Very Low.
Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning for areas south of Interstate 10.
COVINGTON COUNTY, AL…
Locations: Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, and Fairfield.
Wind Speed: 20-30mph wind gusts possible at times. Higher winds likely to happen in the southeastern part of the county near Florala. Wind speeds likely to be less in NW part of county near Red Level.
Rain: 1-2”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near Florala and Wing.
Tornado Risk: Very Low.
ESCAMBIA (AL), CONECUH, BUTLER, MONROE, CLARKE, WASHINGTON, WILCOX, AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES…
Locations: Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall, Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, Belleville, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Daisy, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home, Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Frisco City, Megargal, Mineola, Chrysler, Goodway, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Beatrice, Riley Crossing, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Scratch Ankle, Hybart, Franklin, Eliska, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Fulton, Carlton, Gainestown, Gosport, Whatley, Scyrene, Springfield, Chilton, Tallahatta Springs, Bashi, Woods Bluff, Campbell, Zimco, Toddtown, Salitpa, Suggsville, Alma, Dickinson, West Bend, Winn, Walker Springs, Chatom, Leroy, McIntosh, Millry, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Fruitdale, Yellow Pine, Copeland, Yarbo, Jordan, Bigbee, St. Stephens, Tibbie, Sims Chapel, Sunflower, Malcolm, Camden, Pine Hill, Oak Hill, Millers Ferry, Butler, Needham, Toxey, Pennington, Silas, and Gilbertown.
Wind Speed: Breezy conditions are expected with winds of 10-20 mph at times. High winds and wind impacts are currently not anticipated in these inland areas.
Rain: 1-3”, with the greater rain amounts farther to the south and lesser rain amounts farther to the north.
Tornado Risk: Very Low, if not zero in most spots.
WIREGRASS & SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…
Locations: Dothan, Enterprise, Elba, Geneva, Abbeville, Ozark, Daleville, Cottonwood, Samson, Coffee Springs, and surrounding areas.
Wind Speed: Wind Speed: 20-30mph wind gusts possible at times. Higher winds likely to happen in the southeastern part of the region near Dothan and Cottonwood in Houston County. Wind speeds likely to be less in NW part of the region near Elba.
Rain: 1-3”, with the greater rain amounts farther to the south and lesser rain amounts farther to the north.
Tornado Risk: Very Low.
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (WALTON COUNTY & EASTWARD)…
Locations: Panama City, Port St. Joe, Marianna, Blountstown, Wewahitchka, Freeport, Bonifay, Ponce De Leon, Santa Rosa Beach, Seaside, Rosemary Beach, Lynn Haven, Springfield, Parker, Altha, and surrounding areas.
Wind Speed: 40-60mph winds possible, with gusts up to 65mph. Higher winds likely near the immediate beaches and along area bays. Wind speeds likely to be less in inland communities. Areas near Panama City, Port St. Joe, and Mexico Beach may have slightly higher wind gusts, near 50-65mph.
Timing: High wind gusts could begin as early as 9PM Friday and extend to Noon Saturday. Core risk time will be Midnight to 8AM Saturday, based on the latest forecast data as of 4PM Thursday.
Rain: 2-5”, with the greater rain amounts likely happening near the immediate beaches.
Tornado Risk: Tornadoes will be possible along and east of the center of circulation where PTC16/Nestor moves onshore. This could include Bay, Gulf, Calhoun counties, and points east. Be ready for possible tornado warnings in these areas.
Official Products: Tropical Storm Warning for the entirety of this stretch of coastline. There is a Storm Surge Warning in effect for areas at and east of Indian Pass, FL.
APP… Download the RedZone Weather app to continue to receive our constant updates. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
More updates will be posted this evening! Let me know if you have any questions.