FORECAST ON TRACK: LOW IMPACT EVENT LOCALLY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening. The forecast for Tropical Storm Nestor remains right on track. Here are the headlines for Nestor:
1) Heavy rain will be possible locally this evening into Saturday morning, particularly in communities along, south, and east of Interstate 65. Rain totals will be greatest in parts of Okaloosa and southern Santa Rosa counties where rain has been ongoing all day so far. You can see in the radar image above, captured at 5:01PM, that scattered showers continue across our region.
2) The tornado risk across south Alabama and our 3 northwest Florida counties (Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa) remains at or near zero. There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes in the Florida Panhandle east of a line from Chipley to Santa Rosa Beach overnight. This includes places like Panama City, Marianna, Port Saint Joe, and Mexico Beach. Again, basically no tornado risk for our local area.
3) Gusty winds will be possible at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches (20-30 mph gusts) through Saturday morning. We note the tropical storm warning has been cancelled for all of Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia (FL) counties. A Tropical Storm Warning continues only at the immediate coastline for Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties and points east in the Florida Panhandle.
4) Flash flooding is not expected to be a major issue locally. Rain totals will be in the 1-2” range with this event, meaning beneficial, drought-alleviating rain. Good news!
5) In summary, we will have some rain tonight and on Saturday locally, but major issues are not expected.
MONDAY STORMS… The Storm Prediction Center has modified the convective outlook for Monday and it’s good news for much of our local area. The overall threat region has clearly shifted farther to the north where the better combination of atmospheric shear, instability, and moisture will be. I expect SPC to introduce a lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk for Monday in future updates. We still aren’t completely “out of the woods” with this event, but I am encouraged by trends today. Have a good weekend and let me know if you need any decision support related to weather.
