GROWING CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN GULF… RZW Exec members, good Thursday morning. The National Hurricane Center has outlined an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico (INVEST 97L) that now has a 50% chance of tropical storm formation over the next 2 days. Regardless of if formal development happens, this system will be a contributing factor to the high rain chances as we go into Friday and Saturday as the moisture from this lifts northward. I am not expecting major impacts from this system across south Alabama and northwest Florida at this time, regardless of if formal development happens. We will have significant rain chances this weekend, but hazardous weather is not expected at this time. As always, please let me know if you have any decision support needs. Here is the public post we will debut in the next few hours…
GROWING CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN WESTERN GULF… There is now a 40-50% chance that an area of low pressure (branded as INVEST 97L) currently situated in the Bay of Campeche becomes a tropical storm or subtropical storm as the system moves northward over the next 2-3 days. Let me be clear in stating that regardless of if this system develops into a tropical storm (or not), hazardous weather impacts from this system are NOT expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Rain, yes. Major hazards, no. This system is one of the reasons rain chances remain elevated as we go into Friday and Saturday.
INVEST 97L GAINING STRENGTH… The disturbance in the southern Gulf has become more defined and better organized this morning. The infrared satellite loop shows a large burst of convection that has formed in the last 6 hours. This means that the system probably is encountering an environment that may be more supportive of development in the hours ahead.
POTENTIAL SETUP OF 97L… We note the Global Forecast System and the ECMWF/Euro are more in sync today as far as the suggestion of copious amounts of moisture moving northward on Friday and Saturday into parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Some of this moisture will cause heavy rain across parts of our local area as well, specifically west Alabama.
HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL LIKELY TO BE WET ON FRIDAY NIGHT… Several schools and school systems across the region have opted to move their high school football games to this (Thursday) evening to avoid the rain that is expected on Friday. For the games tonight, we expect dry conditions with temperatures near 70° under cloudy skies. For the games that are still scheduled on Friday, rain is likely in most spots locally, especially across west Alabama. Temperatures will be in the upper-60s at most of the games inland and near 70° closer to the coast. Keep that rain gear handy and with you! We’ll have radar updates on Friday night as needed in the RedZone Weather app.
RAIN TOTALS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 1-2” RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY… Most of the heavier rain on Friday into Saturday will happen west of the Alabama River in west Alabama. Most spots in Clarke, Washington, Mobile, and Choctaw counties will probably have upwards of 2 inches of rain in total while communities farther to the east like Andalusia, Brewton, Evergreen, and Greenville may only pick up 1” of rain in total or less. You can see the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast graphic (attached) issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
UNSETTLED PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK… Rain chances will remain at least somewhat elevated Sunday through Wednesday of the upcoming week as a stalled frontal boundary meanders across our region. High temperatures will consistently be in the 70s. It probably won’t be an “all day washout” on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday, but there will likely be showers and storms around each day. We’ll keep you posted about it all in the RedZone Weather app.
APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.