NICE FOR BLACK FRIDAY; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT… Mild temperatures are expected on this Black Friday ahead of a chance of a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. Most of the daytime hours of Saturday will be nice and warm under mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances will rise Saturday evening as more showers form out ahead of the main line of thunderstorms that is set to move by early Sunday morning. Storms will move across our region and likely weaken as they do so. If any severe storms happen locally, they are most likely to occur over west Alabama, west of the Alabama River. After the rain and storms early Sunday, much cooler air will start filtering in from the northwest. Let’s look at details.
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY & SATURDAY… Mostly sunny skies are likely throughout the day on this Black Friday. High temperatures will peak in the low-70s in most spots. If you’re headed out to a high school football playoff game tonight, no rain issues are expected. Temperatures at 7PM will be in the low-60s, falling into the 50s by the 4th quarter of each game. Saturday during the daylight hours will feature increasing cloudiness with high temperatures in the upper-70s.
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY… There is a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across parts of west Alabama late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. This will be a line of thunderstorms that is weakening by the time it reaches our area, but there is a chance the storms still could be marginally severe by the time they reach west Alabama. Much of the daytime hours of Saturday will be dry and warm with temperatures peaking near 78-80° in most spots. Rain chances will rise late in the day when we may have a few showers. Storms will be possible after 10PM Saturday. Much cooler air is slated to move in behind the advancing cold front late Sunday. Let’s look at the details.
LEVEL 1 RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA… This hasn’t changed since last evening: The Storm Prediction Center includes parts of west Alabama in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, marginal risk zone meaning there is a chance of a few isolated strong or potentially severe thunderstorms. We expect vast majority of the severe weather issues on Saturday to happen earlier in the day and well to the west of our area. Parts of Clarke, Washington, Mobile, Choctaw, Wilcox, and Marengo counties are involved in the low-end, Level 1 risk zone. This includes places like Thomasville, Coffeeville, Chatom, Wilmer, Citronelle, Vinegar Bend, Jackson, Leroy, Millry, Butler, Sweet Water, Demopolis, and Linden.
WEAKER STORMS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AL & NW FL… Storms could be strong at times, but overall will probably be weakening as they cross our area from west to east. We note 80 percent of our local area (basically the Alabama River and points eastward) is included in the General Thunderstorms zone as opposed to a formal severe weather risk zone. This includes locales like Mobile, Pensacola, Fairhope, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Andalusia, Opp, Brewton, Atmore, Century, Flomaton, Jay, Navarre, Milton, Pace, Crestview, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and surrounding areas. Keep in mind that some or all of these areas may be included in a higher risk zone as the event draws closer.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Isolated rain showers are possible as early as 6PM Saturday across the region, but I would suggest rain chances will remain at or below 10% before 9PM. Showers will pick up in number through midnight. The core timeframe for severe weather for west Alabama will happen from 10PM Saturday to 7AM Sunday with the core risk being from midnight to 4AM. We will continue to observe model trends and bring you updates in the hours ahead. Be sure to check back with me for the very latest tomorrow and on Saturday morning.
LEVEL 2 RISK ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA… The greater severe weather issues will almost certainly happen across parts of east Texas, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi. Those are the areas included in the slightly higher Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone. This includes places like Baton Rouge, Jackson (MS), Alexandria, Monroe, Shreveport, Natchez, Brookhaven, Vicksburg, Ruston, Natchitoches, Lake Charles, and Yazoo City. Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will be MORE likely to occur in those areas.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Temperatures will drastically decrease as we go into the early part of next week due to a cold front that will cross our area from west to east on Sunday morning. High temperatures Monday into Tuesday will drop into the mid-50s with morning lows in the low- to mid-30s.
APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I’ll have updates as needed today in the RedZone Weather app with your next full forecast discussion posted by 7:15AM on Saturday. Be sure to check back with me then for an update ahead of the storms tomorrow night.