STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT; TORNADOES POSSIBLE… Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and damaging winds will be possible later today and overnight across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include vast majority of our area in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to receive urgent weather warnings today and tonight as there is a fairly high chance tornado warnings may be needed at times. The core risk for south Alabama and northwest Florida will likely happen long after dark tonight, meaning you will need to be able to get warnings even when you’re sleeping. See the detailed information about this severe weather risk below.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING; DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 10AM… We are not expecting significant weather issues other than the dense fog that is ongoing this morning across parts of our local area. A Dense Fog Advisory continues until 10AM. The fog coverage seems to be greatest this morning across coastal counties, but there is fog happening in inland communities as well. Take it slow if you’re out and about driving this morning. We could have a few rain showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms around this morning but I’m not expecting severe weather until the P.M. hours.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON… While the tornado risk will be highest in the overnight hours as a strong to severe line of thunderstorms moves across our region, I can’t rule out supercell thunderstorms that develop well out ahead of the main line this afternoon. We encourage everyone to be “severe weather ready” by 1PM *just in case* we have storms firing out ahead of the main line of storms. There certainly is no guarantee that discrete supercells will form in this environment, but we note that some models have alluded to that possibility.
CORE SEVERE WEATHER RISK HAPPENS OVERNIGHT… The greatest risk of severe weather with this event will happen tonight from 9PM to 9AM on Tuesday. There could be somewhat of a “messy storm mode,” in that this could be a squall line of storms, but we very well could have a squall line with more supercell-like structures involved. This could potentially increase the overall tornado risk across the area. We will know more about the storm mode overnight once the actual storms develop later today back to our west across Mississippi and Louisiana.
MAIN HAZARDS TONIGHT: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS… The tornado risk locally tonight into Tuesday early morning will be highest across parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties where a “greater combination of atmospheric ingredients” looks to set up. If you’re in these counties, be aware that your tornado potential looks a bit higher. We ALL, however, have at least some risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. There also could be some large hail involved in the stronger storms. Flash flooding could briefly become an issue as the main line of storms passes through our region. ALL modes of severe weather will be possible with this event!
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… There is now a LOW confidence, conditional risk of severe storms from 1PM to 6PM today. If any storms happen this afternoon (and that’s a big IF at this point), they likely would come to an end in the early evening. We get a lull in the action until the late evening hours. 9PM Monday to 9AM Tuesday looks to be the 12 hour window when the main line of storms will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Core timeframe looks to be from 11PM tonight to 5AM Tuesday. Rain showers may happen earlier this evening and extend into Tuesday afternoon long after the severe weather risk has come to an end.
The risk zones described in previous long form posts and our updates remain on track.
LEVEL 3 RISK FOR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA… The Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone includes areas near Butler, Pennington, Demopolis, Eutaw, Livingston, Reform, Gordo, York, Geiger, Forkland, and surrounding areas in west-central Alabama. Jackson (MS), Baton Rouge, Hattiesburg, Meridian, Alexandria (LA) are also included in this higher Level 3 risk zone. This enhanced risk is used by the Storm Prediction Center to designate where the better combination of “severe weather ingredients” is set to come together.
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA… Vast majority of our local area in south Alabama remains included in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk for severe storms. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Milton, Pace, Pensacola Beach, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fairhope, Foley, Daphne, Loxley, Silverhill, Bay Minette, Thomasville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Chatom, Leroy, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lyeffion, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Andalusia, Carolina, River Falls, Molino, Jay, and Century are all included in this Level 2 risk, where isolated severe storms may happen. We note much of central and north Alabama is also included in this risk zone. Birmingham, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Selma, Camden, Prattville, Clanton, Hoover, Centreville, Cullman, Jasper, Boaz, Oneonta, Fayette, Russellville, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Florence, and Hamilton are involved in the Level 2 risk area.
LEVEL 1 RISK FOR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA… SPC has decided to lower parts of Covington, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa into the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk. We note that all of southeast Alabama near Dothan, Enterprise, and Geneva is also included in this zone. This includes areas like Destin, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Opp, Florala, Navarre, Geneva, Enterprise, Elba, Daleville, Dothan, Fort Rucker, Eglin AFB, Eufaula, and Auburn (AL).
SHARPLY COLDER ON TUESDAY… The cold front partially responsible for all of this severe weather action will move through our region on Tuesday morning behind the main line of storms. Temperatures will turn sharply colder throughout the day on Tuesday. The technical high temperature on Tuesday will happen just after midnight, with temperatures declining all day. We’ll be in the 40s across south Alabama and northwest Florida by Tuesday afternoon, falling into the upper-30s by the late evening hours.
COOL, DRY MIDWEEK; BELOW FREEZING IN EARLY MORNING HOURS… Cold, dry air will have an unfettered path into our region from the northwest after the passage of the cold front this week. We expect multiple nights with below freezing temperatures. See the 7 Day Forecast graphic in the attached video for more info.
MORE RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… Our next chance of rain after Tuesday looks to be Friday into Saturday when we could have a few showers around. We’ll focus on this weather system more in the days ahead.
APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day on Monday in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all of the many details and graphics in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Be sure to check back with me throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest information.
