SEVERE STORMS LIKELY SATURDAY; LIVE THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE… Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main concerns on Saturday as a potent weather system moves across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Parameters continue to indicate the potential for multiple tornadoes and a widespread wind event capable of knocking down numerous trees across the area. Due to the extreme amounts of wind shear expected to be in place, a strong tornado (EF2+) cannot be ruled out at this time. We will need to closely monitor parameters on Friday and early Saturday morning ahead of the event. While the core of risk of severe weather will happen during the daytime hours on Saturday, we’re also watching the potential for a low-end risk of storms late Friday into the overnight hours ahead of the bigger event. The Storm Prediction Center maintains all of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk valid for Saturday. A Level 4 risk is in place for FRIDAY across northwest Louisiana, east Texas, and southern Arkansas. Let’s look at a few Thursday evening details.
NO ISSUES TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING… We are FINE tonight and on Friday morning, with no significant weather issues expected. There could be patchy areas of dense fog on Friday A.M. The significant severe weather issues set up well to our west on Friday, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours, across parts of east Texas, southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern/central Louisiana. If you are traveling to those areas tomorrow (Friday), be aware of the significant tornado and damaging wind potential there.
SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON… Rain chances will gradually increase throughout the day on Friday. There is a chance some locales, especially on the eastern side of our region in Covington, Butler, and Okaloosa counties, remain dry for much of the day on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually move in from the south as a warm front lifts northward across our region on Friday.
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY… Rumbles of thunder are possible, especially across west Alabama, on Friday afternoon into the evening hours. We will be increasingly monitoring the radar trends on Friday evening into the overnight hours as some of the storms could briefly become severe. This is more of a low-end risk compared to the bigger risk that will set up across our region on Saturday. The big takeaway, though, is we all need to have a way to get urgent weather warnings as early as Friday evening!
UPDATED: STORM TIMING ON SATURDAY… 7AM to 7PM Saturday is the 12 hour window in which severe weather seems most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida The core window for severe weather will happen across Alabama and northwest Florida between 10AM and 5PM. This is when the risk of tornadoes will be highest. Confidence is now much higher in this timeframe now that we are within 36 hours of this severe weather potential.
SATURDAY SEVERE WEATHER OVERVIEW – WHAT TO EXPECT… We start Saturday morning at 6AM looking to our west at what probably will be a severe squall line of thunderstorms. There is some question as to whether we’ll have supercell/discrete storms out ahead of the main line of storms this early in the morning, but that IS a possibility. A Tornado Watch will probably first be posted for our area in the 6AM to 11AM timeframe. IF discrete storms start firing up or moving into our area from Mississippi, that storm initiation will probably happen in the mid-morning (8AM to 11AM timeframe). There also is a chance discrete/supercell storms may not start firing up until the early afternoon. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, flash flooding, and large hail will all be concerns on Saturday.
LEVEL 3 RISK AREA ON SATURDAY… Much of Alabama, northwest Florida, Mississippi, and the northeast corner of Louisiana near New Orleans is involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in this enhanced risk area. Here are a few of the locales involved in the Level 3 risk area. Note that even if your specific town isn’t included in this list, if you see surrounding towns or cities involved, you’re still included in the risk zone. Level 3 risk as of Wednesday night: Mobile, Pensacola, Birmingham, Montgomery, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Georgiana, Greenville, McKenzie, Hayneville, Camden, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Livingston, McIntosh, Leroy, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Mount Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stockton, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Warrington, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Jay, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Baker, Fort Walton Beach, Tuscaloosa, Marion, Selma, and Demopolis.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK COMES TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING… All of the severe weather issues will end no later than 7PM on Saturday as cooler, more stable air moves into our region from the west. Drier conditions are expected late Saturday night into early Sunday before more showers become possible Sunday.
UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD… More showers and thunderstorms will be possible from late Sunday into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of the upcoming week with temperatures remaining in the 60s and 70s. There have been some indications of a low-end severe weather risk Monday into Tuesday of next week, although it is too early to know for sure whether severe storms will be an issue in that timeframe. We’ll keep you posted. Let’s get through Saturday first.
APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
My next long form discussion and video will be posted by 8AM on Friday morning. Be sure to check back with me then for the very latest as we continue to monitoring this evolving severe weather threat. Have a nice Thursday evening!
