SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TODAY; MAIN CONCERNS: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WIND… The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone on this Saturday, meaning numerous severe storms are expected later today as an intense line of thunderstorms moves across our region from west to east. The enhanced Level 3 risk is driven by the concern of damaging straight line winds that could knock down numerous trees across our region. This could create scattered power outage issues later today. The Storm Prediction Center maintained the overall tornado risk overnight. They are still noting that multiple tornadoes will be possible across our region, including a strong tornado or two. The core risk today will happen from 9AM to 6PM, with the the afternoon hours (1PM to 4PM) being the greatest risk window. We’ll be watching for the potential for a few supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes later this morning ahead of the strong squall line forecast to move through this afternoon and into the evening hours. PLEASE take all tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings seriously today. Get the warning then do something about it! Let’s look at your forecast details.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TODAY… 9AM to 6PM will be the core timeframe when storms are most likely to be moving across our area. Storms will begin in west Alabama earlier, moving through the middle part of our region in south central Alabama and northwest Florida in the early afternoon, followed by the exit of storms to our east around 5-6PM. You must have a way (multiple ways preferred!) to get urgent weather warnings from now until this evening when the risk ends.
LEVEL 3 RISK ADJUSTED; ALL OF LOCAL AREA REMAINS INVOLVED… The entire southern half of Alabama and all of northwest Florida remains involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone today. A “Level 3 risk” means numerous severe thunderstorms are expected, including the potential for tornadoes and damaging winds. If your community OR SURROUNDING AREAS is in the following list, you are involved. I had a question about why I didn’t include specific smaller communities in this detailed list. The short answer is: I try to include as MANY locales as possible but I can’t include everyone. If you’re near one of these communities, you’re involved in the Level 3 risk: Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Crestview, Baker, Laurel Hill, Niceville, Milton, Pace, Navarre, Chumuckla, Jay, Munson, Berrydale, Allentown, Whitfield, Whiting Field, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Molino, Barrineau Park, Warrington, Gonzalez, Ensley, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, McDavid, Bay Minette, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Foley, Magnolia Springs, Elberta, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Elberta, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Loxley, Stapleton, Stockton, Tensaw, Perdido, Rabun, Prichard, Creola, Saraland, Satsuma, Citronelle, Mount Vernon, Axis, Chunchula, Wilmer, Theodore, Dawes, Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Chatom, Millry, Sunflower, Wagerville, McIntosh, Leroy, Deer Park, Jackson, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Fulton, Whatley, Coffeeville, Gainestown, Hybart, Beatrice, Perdue Hill, Mineola, Megargal, Uriah, Goodway, Monroeville, Excel, Frisco City, Tunnel Springs, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Belleville, Range, Jay Villa, Nymph, Brooklyn, Paul, Owassa, Bowles, Lyeffion, Brewton, East Brewton, Appleton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Flomaton, Pineview, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Forest Home, Red Level, River Falls, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Horn Hill, Straughn, Gantt, Heath, Pleasant Home, Babbie, and Loango.
LEVEL 3 RISK FOR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA, WIREGRASS, FLORIDA PANHANDLE… The following places are involved in the Level 3 enhanced risk today: Birmingham, Montgomery, Auburn, Troy, Tuscaloosa, Dothan, Enterprise, Elba, Geneva, Samson, Eufaula, Abbeville, Luverne, Hayneville, Tuskegee, Wetumpka, Prattville, Camden, Selma, Demopolis, Linden, Sweet Water, Butler, Silas, Gilbertown, Livingston, Eutaw, Marion, Clanton, Centreville, Rockford, Fayette, Jasper, Hamilton, Russellville, Vernon, and Aliceville. Port Saint Joe, Mexico Beach, Panama City, Wewahitchka, Marianna, Bonifay, Seaside, Miramar Beach, DeFuniak Springs are also involved in the Level 3 risk area. A “Level 3 risk” means numerous severe thunderstorms are expected, including the potential for tornadoes and damaging winds.
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA… The Storm Prediction Center trimmed northeast Alabama out of the Level 3 risk. These areas are now included in the slightly lower, Level 2 (out of 5) risk where isolated severe storms may happen. This includes areas near Huntsville, Gadsden, Anniston, Decatur, Florence, Cullman, Oneonta, Leeds, Talladega, Valley, Alexander City, Roanoke, Centre, Fort Payne, and Boaz.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY: INTENSE SQUALL LINE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING… The line of strong to severe thunderstorms that is set to move across our area later today has set up to our west across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, and western Tennessee. This line of storms will move across our area this afternoon and this evening. The wind speeds at about 5,000 feet off the ground (the 850 millibar height) are absolutely screaming with this severe weather setup. We’ve covered hundreds of severe weather days over the last 5 years since RedZone Weather started and I cannot recall an event where I’ve seen wind speeds at that height in the atmosphere like this. This will likely be a major wind event, almost like a derecho, across Mississippi and Alabama as this squall line moves through. The big concern is trees being blown down, which is yet another reason people should NOT be driving during severe thunderstorm warnings on Saturday! I would treat all severe thunderstorm warnings today as if it were a tornado warning. That’s how serious the damaging wind risk is today.
TORNADOES POSSIBLE TODAY… The tornado potential today will come in two distinct forms. The first round of possible tornadoes will be if and when we have supercell thunderstorms develop out ahead of the main line of storms. These would likely be the more intense tornadoes, IF supercell thunderstorms happen. We’re watching radar trends carefully for this possibility. The second risk of tornadoes will be embedded in the main squall line of storms as it crosses our region. These may be a bit more intense than the “normal” QLCS/squall line tornadoes due to enhanced forcing in the atmosphere. Be ready for possible tornado warnings later today!
TORNADO WARNING COVERAGE POLICY… We very well could have a few tornado warnings later today. Anytime there is an active Tornado WARNING polygon for any part of our 12 county coverage area in south Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide live, nonstop video coverage in the Live tab of the RedZone Weather app and on Facebook Live. redzoneweather.com/coverage outlines this in extensive detail. We hope you’ll join us if and when we have tornado warnings!
SEVERE WEATHER RISK FINALLY ENDS LATER THIS EVENING… It’s certainly not often that we get a solid WEEK of notice in advance of severe weather. The whole ordeal will come to an end by 7PM this evening as storms exit our area to the east into parts of the Wiregrass and the Florida Panhandle. There could be a few lingering rain showers into tonight. Rain clears out and we will likely be dry for Sunday morning. Showers quickly come back to our region on Sunday evening, however.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING… Showers quickly return to the forecast on Sunday in the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day with high temperatures in the low-70s.
RAIN & STORMS LIKELY ON MONDAY… Numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday as a warm front lifts northward and stalls across our region. For now, the severe weather risk on Monday looks marginal at most. There could be rumbles of thunder throughout the day with heavy rain being possible at times, but the overall severe weather risk on Monday is LOW for now.
UNSETTLED MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK… Warm, humid air will remain in place across the region until at least Wednesday of next week, allowing the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both days. Rain could be heavy at times and there could be some thunder involved each day, particularly in the afternoon hours. High temperatures will be in the mid-70s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures should finally go lower and be closer to our seasonal norms by Thursday and Friday of the upcoming week.
APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
My next detailed update will be posted this afternoon unless it is is superseded by live tornado warning coverage, which is a likelihood. Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great Saturday and please stay safe!
