MAJOR RAINFALL OVER LAST 24 HOURS PROMPTS FLOODING CONCERNS… Details about the creek & river flooding risk are below. Some locales across Escambia (AL), Covington, Conecuh, Coffee, Butler, and northern Santa Rosa counties have had upwards of 6 TO 8 (!!) inches of rainfall in the last 24 hours! This may seem shocking to some folks on the western side of our region near Mobile, Chatom, and Thomasville that have had hardly any rainfall. There is a narrow corridor extending from Orange Beach to Pace to Brewton to Brooklyn to Andalusia and Opp where storms set up last evening and trained over the exact same areas. The result was loud thunderstorms overnight that caused some damage in parts of Andalusia. In addition, many spots are waterlogged this afternoon after receiving 6, 7, and in isolated cases, 8 inches of rainfall in the last 24 hours. All of the rainfall in this narrow corridor have prompted legitimate concerns about local creeks and rivers that are now quite swollen and on the brink of potentially flooding. The good news is, in most cases, impacts from river and creek flooding will be quite minor in the next few days, per the latest stream forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in Mobile. If you have a rain gauge, let me know how much rain you received. It is helpful to have ground truth reports! More details are below.
WHAT TO EXPECT THROUGH TONIGHT: RAIN DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT… Most of the higher resolution projected radar guidance shows a general decrease in the amount of showers and thunderstorms happening across the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida through tonight. At the time this update is being produced (12:30PM Monday), showers are happening across the region near Atmore, Pineview, Andalusia, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Burnt Corn, Georgiana, Straughn, and Gantt Lake. These showers are slowly drifting east-northeast. Overall, the coverage of showers should begin to lessen somewhat in the hours ahead. I’ll have radar updates posted in the RedZone Weather app this afternoon and this evening.
RIVER & CREEK LEVEL PROJECTIONS… It appears river and creek flooding in MOST spots is not expected. We note that the Escambia River near Century may briefly go into the minor flood stage later this week, but it is important to note that minor flooding in that location is fairly common.
MURDER CREEK – BREWTON… Water levels of Murder Creek at Brewton/East Brewton have quickly risen over the last 12 hours. The water level as of Noon is 18.84 feet. NWS Mobile suggests a crest of 19.1 feet, although I suspect this is a bit low. I would suggest the creek will crest later today at a maximum of approximately 20 feet, although IF more storms set up and train over the same areas then we will need to adjust this even higher. For now, that appears unlikely. Minor flood stage is 22 feet, thus Murder Creek at Brewton/East Brewton is projected to crest below flood levels.
BURNT CORN CREEK – BREWTON… The basin of Burnt Corn Creek is a bit farther west, and rainfall over this creek’s basin have not been nearly as high. Right now, water levels of Burnt Corn Creek in Brewton are at 8 feet. Forecast crest is in the 9-11 feet range. Minor flood stage is 16 feet, thus Burnt Corn Creek at Brewton is projected to crest well below flood levels.
BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK – FLOMATON… The basin of Big Escambia Creek is also a bit farther west compared to where the excessive rainfall happened, and rainfall over this creek’s basin have not been nearly as high. Right now, water levels of Big Escambia Creek in Flomaton are at 9.6 feet. Forecast crest is in the 10-12 feet range. Minor flood stage is 19 feet, thus Big Escambia Creek at Flomaton is projected to crest well below flood levels.
CONECUH RIVER – RIVER FALLS… Water levels of the Conecuh River at River Falls (northwest of Andalusia) have quickly risen over the last 12 hours. The water level as of Noon is 20.3 feet. No forecast information is available from NWS Mobile at this time. I would suggest the river will crest at some point this week, although IF more storms set up and train over the same areas then we will need to adjust this even higher. For now, that appears unlikely. Minor flood stage is 37 feet, thus the Conecuh River at River Falls is projected to crest below flood levels.
CONECUH RIVER – RIVERVIEW… Water levels of the Conecuh River at Riverview (south of Brewton & East Brewton) have quickly risen over the last 12 hours. The water level as of Noon is 19.76 feet. NWS Mobile suggests a crest of 24.3 feet on Thursday, although I suspect this is a bit low. I would suggest the river will crest later this week at a maximum of approximately 25-26 feet, although IF more storms set up and train over the same areas then we will need to adjust this even higher. For now, that appears unlikely. Minor flood stage is 27 feet, thus the Conecuh River at Riverview is projected to crest slightly below flood levels.
ESCAMBIA RIVER – CENTURY… Water levels of the Escambia River at Century have slowly risen over the last 12 hours. The water level as of Noon is 12.71 feet. NWS Mobile suggests a crest of 16.8 feet on Thursday. IF more storms set up and train over the same areas then we will need to adjust this even higher. For now, that appears unlikely. Minor flood stage is 17 feet, thus the Escambia River at Century is projected near the minor flood stage level.
SHOAL RIVER – CRESTVIEW… Water levels of the Shoal River at Crestview have slowly risen over the last 12 hours. The water level as of Noon is 6.4 feet. NWS Mobile suggests a crest of 6.5 feet later today. IF more storms set up and train over the same areas then we will need to adjust this even higher. For now, that appears unlikely. Minor flood stage is 8 feet, thus the Shoal River at Crestview is projected to crest slightly below flood levels.
BIG COLDWATER CREEK – MILTON… Water levels of the Big Coldwater Creek near Milton have rapidly risen over the last 12 hours. The water level as of Noon is 6.69 feet. NWS Mobile suggests a crest of 8.5 feet on Tuesday. IF more storms set up and train over the same areas then we will need to adjust this even higher. For now, that appears unlikely. Minor flood stage is 10 feet, thus the Big Coldwater Creek near Milton is projected to crest slightly below flood levels.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
Have a nice Monday evening!
