RZW EXEC: SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening to each of you! After an overall quiet pattern with a mix of dry and rainy days over the last two weeks, our weather pattern will begin to change during the upcoming week. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk of severe weather valid for Wednesday and Thursday (February 5-6). While details are scarce at this point since this potential severe weather event is still 5 days out, confidence is high enough to include our area in this risk zone. Be sure to check with me over the next few days in the public-facing/home (Refresh tab in lower left corner) area of the RZW app for the very latest information. As always, please let me know if you have decision support needs.
The public post that will debut later this evening is below. Have a great weekend!
GROWING CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone for much of the Deep South valid for Wednesday into Thursday of the upcoming week. It appears, based on early model indications, that all modes of severe weather will be possible. This includes tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding. It is too early to know specifics on where individual severe weather risks (like tornadoes) will be highest. The risk will set up to our west on Wednesday and continue across our region Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Be sure to check back with me tomorrow morning and over the next few days as we get closer to this severe weather setup.
DEEP TROUGH & WARM SECTOR LIKELY… You may be wondering how and why the Storm Prediction Center posts an outlook like this so far out. SPC uses multiple weather models and simulations to help better understand the possibilities of what could happen across the continental United States for any given day. Model guidance has been consistent enough to warrant an “early red flag,” suggesting there is a growing potential for the outlooked areas to have severe weather. A trough in the jet stream will dip down across the Great Plains and ultimately move eastward into the Deep South. Combine that with the warm, unstable air that will likely be in place across our region on Wednesday into Thursday, and you get a recipe of ingredients coming together that could produce weather hazards, including tornadoes.
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING… While the bulk of the rain has cleared out of our area this evening, there could be a few lingering areas of rain tonight into the morning hours of Saturday. Rain should be completely gone and to our east by 2PM on Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will peak in the upper-50s but we rebound to around 67° by Sunday afternoon.
BETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY… We will need to enjoy Sunday and Monday as those will be the last sunny days until at least Friday of the upcoming week. Rain and storms will be possible Tuesday ahead of our severe weather risk setting up for Wednesday. High temperatures will rebound to the low-70s by Monday.
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I’ll have your next detailed forecast update posted by 7:15AM on Saturday. See you then!