FORECAST ON TRACK: STRONG STORMS & HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday morning! No major changes are needed in our forecast messaging. We will continue to advertise a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday into Thursday morning for south Alabama and northwest Florida. The main concern continues to be damaging straight line wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and flash flooding. The risk for heavy rain and flash flooding has increased somewhat, as the latest model guidance now shows a wide swath of our area picking up 3 to 4 inches of rain in total over the next 72 hours. We will push this information publicly within the next hour. Please let me know if you have any specific decision support needs. Have a nice afternoon!
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY; HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY… Multiple weather hazards, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and flash flooding, will be possible Wednesday P.M. into Thursday A.M. across the local area. The concern for flash flooding continues to increase as we look ahead to the likelihood of multiple hours of heavy rain setting up for Wednesday and Thursday. The latest forecast guidance from the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows the potential for 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in total in many spots across our region. The Storm Prediction Center maintains their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida as there is a concern for a few tornadoes and severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as well. Let’s look at a few midday Tuesday forecast updates.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA… The National Weather Service in Mobile will likely issue a Flash Flood Watch for northwest Florida in the hours ahead. Based on the latest model guidance, it seems like the greatest chance for heavy rain will happen in parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. NWS Mobile notes that coastal communities and areas that are more urban have a slightly greater flash flood risk compared to communities farther inland. It has been said a thousand times, but it still rings true: If you encounter a water-covered roadway, do NOT attempt to drive over it. We lose too many people across America each year to this phenomenon. Don’t risk it. Turn around, don’t drown.
LEVEL 2 RISK CONTINUES… The midday update from the Storm Prediction Center continues to include ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone where scattered severe storms may happen Wednesday into Thursday. This means scattered instances of tornadoes and damaging winds may happen across our region. Have a way to get the warnings Wednesday into Thursday. DO something about it and take action to get sheltered if your particular area goes under a tornado warning. Level 2 risk (valid for Wednesday into Thursday) as of Tuesday afternoon: Mobile, Pensacola, Birmingham, Montgomery, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Georgiana, Greenville, McKenzie, Hayneville, Camden, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Livingston, McIntosh, Leroy, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Mount Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stockton, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Warrington, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Jay, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Baker, Fort Walton Beach, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Enterprise, Dothan, Troy, Geneva, Marion, Selma, and Demopolis and surrounding areas.
We continue to advise that multiple waves/rounds of severe weather may happen Wednesday into Thursday. The following info remains on target from my previous forecast discussion from this morning.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… The big takeaway from our latest forecast is that we have multiple times when strong to severe thunderstorms may happen. Basically in the 24 hour period from 11AM Wednesday to 11AM Thursday, we need everyone to have a way to get urgent weather warnings. There is not a guarantee warnings will be needed, but that is a growing possibility at this point.
ROUND 1 OF 2: “MESSY STORM MODE” WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON… We will likely have quite a bit of rain and embedded thunderstorms happening across coastal Alabama and northwest Florida in the early afternoon hours of Wednesday. The better dynamics and thermodynamics for severe storms will set up during the evening hours, likely between 2PM and 7PM. This could manifest as clusters of storms or a line of storms. There even could be a big mass of rain and storms with a few supercells closer to the coast. We simply do not have a good grasp of the exact setup of how storms will develop just yet, but there is high confidence that heavy rain will happen at times on Wednesday with a few convective hazards (tornadoes and damaging winds) being possible. After this round of storms, we will probably have a lull in storm action late Wednesday evening into the early morning hours.
ROUND 2 OF 2: STRONG LINE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY MORNING… Cold air will be nudging up against warm, humid air along the advancing cold front on Thursday morning. This front will be slowly moving across our region likely around sunrise on Thursday. While timing remains a bit uncertain, a QLCS/squall line of storms is expected to develop along the cold front. This line of storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes. Once this line of storms moves through your particular locale, you’ll get an all clear and the severe weather risk will come to an end. This will likely happen in many spots from 6AM to 11AM on Thursday.
SUNNY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON… After the active weather during the middle part of the week, we get a nice Friday and nice weekend as a consolation prize. High temperatures Friday will be in the low-60s. Clearing skies are expected in the afternoon and evening hours. There should be a good amount of sunshine in the P.M. hours of Friday.
NICE, MILD WEEKEND AHEAD… Sunny skies are likely for Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will be in the mid-60s each day with morning lows in the 40s. This is exactly where we should be, climatologically speaking, for early February. Get out and enjoy the weekend!
APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
Have a nice Tuesday evening!