HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES THIS WEEK… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday evening! We have quite a bit of rain on the way, especially on Tuesday into Wednesday. The overall risk of severe weather remains low, as in there is currently a very low risk of tornadoes and low risk of gusty winds in the stronger storms that happen Tuesday evening then again on Wednesday in the afternoon and evening hours. Clearly, the greatest weather-related risk this week will be the potential for flash flooding.
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) continues to indicate that 3 to 4 inches of rainfall in total are expected across inland areas of south Alabama through Thursday. This means if you’re in Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Escambia (AL), or Washington counties in south Alabama, you have a slightly higher risk of flash flooding. Coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa) will pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in total this week. There is some concern that river flooding that is ongoing along the Alabama River and Tombigbee River in west Alabama may be at least somewhat exacerbated by this new rainfall.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… The big takeaway here is that the overall risk of severe weather remains LOW for Tuesday into Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked parts of west Alabama in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for Tuesday along with much of central and southern Mississippi. These are the zones where one or two severe storms can’t be completely ruled out, primarily on Tuesday evening. The main convective hazard in any stronger storms that happen would be gusty winds but an isolated tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out, although the risk remains very low. We will get the new convective outlook valid for Wednesday tomorrow morning. I expect much of south Alabama and northwest Florida to be placed in their low-end risk zone valid for Wednesday. I will have another RZW Exec update for you tomorrow (Monday) afternoon. Please let me know if you have any questions.
