FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY; LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK… Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible on this Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. There could be a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms at times, although the overall severe weather risk for any given spot remains low across our region. The hazards in the stronger storms could be gusty winds and hail. The overall tornado risk is very low today. We’re entering into a more active pattern over the next few days with rain and storms being possible each day through Sunday. Cooler air will arrive Thursday evening as a cold front moves through, knocking down high temperatures on Friday into the 70s. Easter Sunday could feature strong to severe storms, with a potentially potent round of severe weather setting up under some scenarios. Let’s look at all the details.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK LOCALLY… Nearly all areas north of Interstate 10 in our local area are included in this low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk. This means that basically all areas outside of the immediate coastal areas are included. Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Citronelle, Chatom, Leroy, Wagerville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Coffeeville, Whatley, Monroeville, Perdue Hill, Beatrice, Tunnel Springs, Frisco City, Excel, Uriah, Atmore, Huxford, Flomaton, Brewton, East Brewton, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Gantt, Straughn, Pleasant Home, Century, Walnut Hill, Molino, Bay Minette, Stockton, Perdido, Niceville, Crestview, and Baker are all included in the low-end risk zone locally.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK AROUND THE REGION… Several locations in central and southeast Alabama are also included: Demopolis, Livingston, Butler, Selma, Camden, Prattville, Luverne, Troy, Elba, Enterprise, Geneva, Dothan, Daleville, Abbeville, Eufaula, Wetumpka, Tuskegee, Union Springs, Marion, and Eutaw are involved in the Level 1 risk zone.
WHAT TO EXPECT TODAY… Some spots have rain and maybe a few thunderstorms. The odds of any particular spot having a severe thunderstorm are LOW, but not entirely zero. If any of the storms ramp up to severe levels, damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of a quarter would be the main concerns. The overall tornado risk is very low.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TODAY… The main risk for strong to severe thunderstorms today will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. 10AM to 8PM is the ten hour window when storms will be most likely to happen locally with the core risk being from 3PM to 7PM. Keep in mind that many areas probably WON’T have any severe weather issues as this remains a low-end risk situation. Regardless, we can’t rule out a few strong storms. Be ready for possible warnings! The good news is I am not expecting storms to be a problem in the overnight hours when most people are sleeping.
UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN APP… Odds are I won’t be on Facebook Live today since the overall risk of tornadoes is very low, however I will be posting numerous updates as needed today into tonight in the free RedZone Weather app. Be sure to check in for the very latest throughout the day. If you’re away from your phone, you can always look up redzoneweather.com as well for the same content.
FEW SHOWERS & STORMS ON WEDNESDAY… Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible Wednesday. High temperatures will rise into the upper-80s. We’re not expecting an “all day washout” on Wednesday but there will be showers around at times.
WARM THURSDAY; COOLER FRIDAY… Isolated showers and storms will be possible on Thursday ahead of an advancing cold front. This front will bring a brief cool down to our area slated to last Friday into Saturday. While high temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid- to upper-80s, highs on Friday will struggle to get to the mid-70s. Overnight lows by Saturday morning will be in the low-50s.
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY; UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS… If you missed my forecast update last evening, I mentioned the possibility of a potentially significant round of severe weather on Easter Sunday. Confidence about that idea is still lacking as models have really remained inconsistent over the last 12-24 hours. You generally want to see model data converging in thought and not diverging to get a more clear idea of what will likely happen in our forecast. That has yet to happen. The concern is that some models indicate that we could have an area of low pressure sliding by well to our northwest that would put much of our area in an unstable warm sector. Combined with several other “severe weather ingredients,” there could be a tornado and/or damaging wind risk. I will continue to assess the data today and bring you the latest when we know more. For now, just keep in mind that we could have strong to severe storms around on Easter Sunday under some scenarios.
CARDS FOR THE ELDERLY… Please don’t forget to take advantage of our new RedZone Weather Cards for the Elderly program. We want to be able to safely send as many encouraging cards as possible to our local senior adults in nursing homes. Be sure to visit the link below for all the information. This is an opportunity for students and adults across our region to write encouraging notes to elderly people currently under lockdown in local nursing homes due to the ongoing COVID-19 situation. Here is the link.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Enjoy the day!