SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ON EASTER SUNDAY… Multiple chances of rain are ahead, but the focus is now on Easter Sunday when severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Deep South. There is an increasing risk of tornadoes, perhaps some strong or long track, and damaging winds on Sunday, but it is still too early to give specifics on hazard placements. This means I (nor anyone else) can tell you exactly where tornadoes will happen. The big takeaway as of now is that we all need to have multiple ways to receive urgent weather warnings on Sunday as a potentially potent round of severe storms may happen. The Storm Prediction Center includes ALL of our local area in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk with further outlook upgrades possible. Before we get there, we have a nice cool down on tap for Friday due to a cold front that will move across our region later today. There also are some indications that we could have rain and perhaps a few storms move by early Friday morning before clearing skies happen later in the day. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.
COLD FRONT MOVES BY LATER TODAY… Warm temperatures are expected again today with highs likely to be in the 84-87° range across the interior of southwest Alabama. Rain chances remain low (0-20%) today, but I can’t rule out a few blips on the radar this afternoon representing highly isolated, brief downpours reminiscent of our usual weather pattern that happens around here in the middle of summer. Severe weather issues are not expected on this Thursday. Cooler air will begin to surge in this evening, probably after 5PM in most spots, as a cold front moves in from the north.
SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING… While rain chances today and during the daytime hours of Friday remain low, the odds of rain overnight into the very early (pre-dawn) hours of Friday are a bit higher. We’ll call it a 10-20% chance as of now. Some weather models have clearly indicated the potential for a round of rain and storms to work into our region late tonight and move across the region on Friday morning. This could mean we could have rain and storms happening tomorrow morning before 9AM. I suspect these models are over-projecting the rain across our region, and there is a high chance most of us will remain dry. Overnight lows will be in the mid- to upper-50s by 6AM Friday.
COOL FRIDAY AFTERNOON… Skies will progressively clear throughout the day on Friday as cool, dry, stable air moves in from the north. Highs on Friday will be in the low-70s with a 5-10mph wind out of the north.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS SATURDAY… Cloud coverage will increase on Saturday ahead of a few showers becoming possible in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper-70s. Most of the rain will hold off until after 5PM.
RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT… Rain and thunderstorms will be likely as we go into Saturday night and early Sunday morning. This should be a good, soaking rain with some spots likely to pick up 1 inch or so of rain from Saturday evening through sunrise on Sunday.
SOME UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED… That’s a great headline for weather, in general, but particularly in this situation! Around sunrise on Sunday is when the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain. Some models (like the ECMWF/Euro) have trended drier, which would allow for more instability to support strong to severe storms later in the day. Other models (like the GFS) have indicated there could be a large mass of showers that continues streaming into our area from the southwest, keeping our area in a more stable airmass with most of the instability shunted to our south over the northern Gulf of Mexico. For now, we will side more with the model trends that show a drier pattern briefly Sunday morning before severe storms fire up midday into the afternoon and evening hours. The GFS and other models that consistently suggested a rain mass at the coast have backed off on that idea, which is not good news. More models seem to be aligning in the idea of a substantial severe weather threat.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… There is a robust setup that appears to be taking shape for Sunday, when an area of low pressure will develop to our west and lift to the northeast. This will place our area in an unstable, warm air mass that is supportive for strong to severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center maintains our area in a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk for this potential, with further outlook upgrades possible over the next few days.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SUNDAY… While there still are some considerable timing differences in the data we are observing today, we will advise that 2PM on Sunday to 2AM on Monday is the 12 hour window when severe weather will be most likely to happen. The greatest impacts to happen from 3PM to 8PM. We will be able to get more specific over the next few days.
TORNADOES POSSIBLE SUNDAY… The latest data certainly continues the trend of indicating the potential for tornadoes across our region on Sunday. Please make sure, long before this event happens, that you have a way to get warnings and that you have a plan in place to implement if or when a tornado warning is required for your location. We are now in mid-April and a potential event like what we’re seeing on Sunday is certainly expected this time of year. We are in the heart of severe weather season. Alabama has experienced more tornadoes in the month of April compared to all other months of the year, so this should not be a surprise to anyone.
SUNNY & WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY… Once the storms clear out late Sunday, much better weather is ahead for Monday into Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s with plenty of sunshine each day.
COVID-19 AND TORNADO WARNING GUIDELINES… We are in a weird time when the guidelines on what to do during a tornado warning versus what to do regarding social distancing because of COVID-19 may seem to conflict. If you, your family, or your friends use a community underground storm shelter, please take the opportunity to read the recommended guidelines established by our local National Weather Service offices and the state health department. Basically, the tornado warning takes precedence over social distancing when/if necessary as the tornado is the more immediate threat. Here is the post outlining those details.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
CARDS FOR THE ELDERLY… Please don’t forget to take advantage of our new RedZone Weather Cards for the Elderly program. We want to be able to safely send as many encouraging cards as possible to our local senior adults in nursing homes. Be sure to visit the link below for all the information. This is an opportunity for students and adults across our region to write encouraging notes to elderly people currently under lockdown in local nursing homes due to the ongoing COVID-19 situation. Here is the link.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!
