EASTER SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED… Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will all become possible across Alabama and parts of the Deep South in the P.M. hours of Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center basically left the convective outlook unchanged in the overnight update, meaning much of west and central Alabama remains involved in the rare Level 4 (out of 5) significant risk zone. Much of south Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in the Level 3 enhanced risk zone. Regardless of the risk level and risk color at your particular location, the headlines remain the same: Strong tornadoes will be possible on Sunday, primarily in the evening hours. Damaging winds and large hail will also be concerns. See more information below outlining the specifics of this potentially dangerous severe weather setup.
CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY… Ahead of the severe weather issues on Sunday, we have a nice Saturday on tap across the region. High temperatures will peak in the mid- to upper-70s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Clouds will increase in coverage this evening. There could be a few small showers after sunset across west Alabama, but I expect vast majority of the rain to hold off until Sunday evening.
FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT; STORMS TO OUR NORTH… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across inland areas of south Alabama on early Sunday morning (midnight to 6AM). The lack of instability this early in the morning should somewhat hinder lightning output with little to no risk of severe storms until much later in the day. You may hear thunder at times, but we are not expecting major severe weather issues on Sunday morning. Overnight lows will be in the low-60s.
MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY MORNING… I have had multiple questions over the last few days about the forecast for Easter Sunday morning. If you’re headed to a drive-in Easter service, perhaps at sunrise or perhaps later in the morning, the overall chance of rain remains fairly low. We’ll call it a 20-30% chance of showers for Easter Sunday morning. Most spots will probably remain dry until we get into the evening hours.
MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT – P.M. HOURS OF SUNDAY… The overall synoptic setup for a major severe weather event on Easter Sunday remains in place. While the core risk of this event will happen over west-central Alabama, Mississippi, and northeast Louisiana, an expansive area of considerable severe weather risk will exist across the Deep South. Strong tornadoes can and probably will (in some cases) happen outside the core risk zone. Just like every other severe weather event, there will inevitably be a few surprises along the way, reinforcing the fact that we all need a way to get urgent weather warnings even if you’re not involved in a higher risk zone!
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 5PM to 10PM will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Please have a way to receive urgent weather warnings before you go to sleep Saturday night and before you go to sleep Sunday night just in case warnings are required outside of the main risk timeframe. Severe weather will be possible much earlier across parts of north Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. The same logic applies in that east Alabama and the Florida Panhandle region may have severe weather issues into Monday morning.
DON’T FIXATE ON RISK LEVELS & COLORS… The following four paragraphs are strictly informational. I don’t want anyone to get so fixated on the specific color or risk level a specific place is involved in that we forget the overall, major severe weather risk for the entire local area. The risk levels and colors are generalized guidelines for where the greater threats are more likely to be.
LEVEL 4 RISK LOCALLY IN WEST ALABAMA… For our local area, the Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk is in place for parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo and Wilcox counties. This zone currently includes Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Leroy, Coffeeville, Whatley, Millry, Chatom, Yarbo, St. Stephens, Gilbertown, Toxey, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Mt. Sterling, Sweet Water, Dixons Mills, Morvin, Nanafalia, Pine Hill, Camden, and Millers Ferry.
LEVEL 4 RISK TO OUR NORTH… The Level 4 (out of 5) risk extends northward into much of west and central Alabama, including: Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Northport, Hoover, Montevallo, Clanton, Selma, Marion, Centreville, Linden, Demopolis, York, Livingston, Eutaw, Moundville, Greensboro, Gordo, Aliceville, Fayette, Hamilton, Vernon, Jasper, Double Springs, Russellville, Clanton, Oneonta, Leeds, and surrounding areas. Jackson (MS), Starkville (MS), Oxford (MS), Meridian (MS), Monroe (LA), and McComb (MS) are also included in this higher risk zone.
LEVEL 3 RISK FOR MUCH OF LOCAL AREA… Other than previously mentioned locales in Clarke and Washington counties, the rest of us locally are involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk. Note that a Level 3 risk is uncommon (2-3 per year, local average) with scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms being likely on Sunday. Keep in mind, I simply cannot type out all locales. I do my best to include as many as possible. If you see a surrounding community, odds are you’re included in this zone. Level 3 risk: Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Wilmer, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Stockton, Loxley, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Foley, Elberta, Pensacola, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Jay, Milton, Pace, Munson, Allentown, Chumuckla, Laurel Hill, Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Lenox, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Owassa, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Red Level, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Wing, Straughn, Gantt, Lockhart, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Frisco City, Excel, McIntosh, and Deer Park, and Vinegar Bend.
LEVEL 3 RISK ACROSS ALABAMA & THE DEEP SOUTH… I can’t recall seeing such an expansive Level 3 risk zone across much of the Deep South. Widespread tornadoes and damaging winds will be possible on Sunday. You’re involved in this Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone if you are in or near these areas: Montgomery, Auburn, Troy, Tuskegee, Eufaula, Luverne, Hayneville, Wetumpka, Union Springs, Valley, Daleville, Ft. Rucker, Abbeville, Dothan, Geneva, Samson, Elba, Enterprise, Alexander City, Lake Martin, Talladega, Gadsden, Anniston, Ft. Payne, Centre, Boaz, Huntsville, Decatur, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Atlanta (GA), New Orleans (LA), Little Rock (AR), Memphis (TN), Nashville (TN), Chattanooga (TN), Biloxi (MS), and Macon (GA).
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR PARTS OF N.W. FLORIDA… Some good news to report this morning, but please don’t take it as “out of the woods” just yet. SPC has chosen to downgrade parts of northwest Florida and the beaches of Alabama into their Level 2 (out of 5) risk. Severe storms, including tornadoes, will be possible in and near these locales, but the overall risk is a bit lower compared to areas farther inland. This includes Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Crestview, Niceville, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Seaside, Santa Rosa Beach, Panama City, Port St. Joe, Mexico Beach, Marianna, and surrounding areas.
STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE… Supercell thunderstorms that become discrete and isolated on Sunday evening will have plenty of fuel (instability), plenty of moisture (high dewpoints), plenty of shear, and plenty of helicity (veering of the winds as you go higher in the atmosphere) that will allow for the development of potentially significant and strong tornadoes. While there is uncertainty as to if supercells will become likely locally, there is currently a strong possibility of this happening. ALL tornadoes, big and small, are serious. Strong tornadoes tend to stay on the ground longer than their “weaker” counterparts, however.
DAMAGING WIND ALSO POSSIBLE… In addition to the pronounced tornado threat, I also am concerned about damaging “straight line” winds. The overall setup will likely feature discrete storms out ahead of a squall line that will move through to bring the severe weather threat to a close late Sunday evening or perhaps very early in the morning hours of Monday. Damaging wind would be the main concern in this squall line.
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE… Discrete storms tend to also be large hail producers. If we get a group of supercell thunderstorms moving across our area, don’t be surprised to see large hail (perhaps as large as half dollars or golf balls) being a major concern in addition to the tornado risk.
HAVE YOUR TORNADO HELMET READY… It cannot be stressed enough that everyone (both children AND adults) needs some type of head protection, whether that is a helmet or a makeshift helmet like a cooking pot. Emerging research continues to show that wearing a helmet during a tornado that strikes your location greatly increases your chance of survival. Why? Because majority of fatal injuries that happen due to tornadoes happen because of blunt force trauma to the head/skull region. Thus, if we can mitigate this hazard in any way, we should. That’s where helmets and cooking pots come into the equation. Anything is better than nothing in this case. This means if you can grab a football, baseball, softball, bicycle, motorcycle, ballistics, or welding helmet and put it on, it will highly likely help you survive a tornado impact. Note this helmet deal isn’t just for children. It applies to everyone, no matter if you’re 8, 28, or 88 years old. Everyone needs a severe weather helmet. I cannot recommend them to you enough! See the full tornado preparedness post from last night here.
COVID-19 AND TORNADO WARNING GUIDELINES… We are in a weird time when the guidelines on what to do during a tornado warning versus what to do regarding social distancing because of COVID-19 may seem to conflict. If you, your family, or your friends use a community underground storm shelter, please take the opportunity to read the recommended guidelines established by our local National Weather Service offices and the state health department. Basically, the tornado warning takes precedence over social distancing when/if necessary as the tornado is the more immediate threat. Here is the post outlining those details.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SUNNY & WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY… Once the storms clear out early Monday morning, much better weather is ahead for the daytime hours of Monday into Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s with plenty of sunshine each day.
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed update will be available later this evening. Have a good Saturday!