SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER ON SUNDAY EVENING… Significant tornadoes will become possible across the Deep South on Sunday into early Monday morning before sunrise. The greatest risk of tornadoes and severe weather across our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen from 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday. 7PM Sunday to 1AM Monday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Multiple, potentially long-track supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will be the main storm mode that affects our local area. While the overall tornado risk is a bit higher to our north across west Alabama and east Mississippi, this is a situation where we ALL have a considerable risk of severe weather due to the overall synoptic setup on Sunday into early Monday. Be ready for possible warnings and take action if your location goes under a tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning! Let’s look at a few details this evening.
THREAT SUMMARY… Strong tornadoes will become possible across parts of the Deep South, including across our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida, on Sunday into Sunday night in what will likely be a significant severe weather outbreak. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will also be possible.
CURRENT RISK LEVELS… Level 4 (out of 5) risk for Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, and Wilcox counties in west Alabama. Level 3 (out of 5) risk for all other counties in south Alabama and northwest Florida. A Level 2 risk is in place for beach communities from Gulf Shores eastward to Destin and Santa Rosa Beach. Note that regardless of the risk level or color, this is a substantial severe weather risk across the entire region. Further outlook upgrades or modifications are possible over the next 12 hours.
LOCATIONS INVOLVED… ALL of south Alabama and ALL of northwest Florida are involved in this risk zone. The greatest risk of very dangerous, long-track tornadoes will happen over west Alabama locally. The atmosphere will be quite volatile and unstable across the entire region, thus we cannot rule out the possibility of multiple strong tornadoes locally. Again, don’t get caught up in a risk color/number. This is a significant threat across the entire region.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 7PM Sunday to 1AM Monday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Multiple strong, potentially long-track, tornadoes are the main concern. All modes of severe weather, including damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding will be possible.
BE READY… Tornado helmets or makeshift helmets are absolutely critical in a severe weather event like this. NOW is the time to make a severe weather plan. More info here.
BE THE HERO… The National Weather Service has launched an awareness campaign entitled, “Be The Hero.” The truth is you can absolutely be a hero and inform those folks around you that pay no attention to the world of weather. I guarantee you (sadly) there are folks all around that have heard NOTHING about this significant severe weather threat setting up for tomorrow. The way we combat that is to “be the hero” and let your friends and family know about this risk. Call them, text them, tag them, pass it along to them, I really don’t care HOW you tell your folks as long as we make as many folks aware of this risk as possible.
LEVEL 4 RISK LOCALLY IN WEST ALABAMA… For our local area, the Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk is in place for parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo and Wilcox counties. This zone currently includes Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Leroy, Coffeeville, Whatley, Millry, Chatom, Yarbo, St. Stephens, Gilbertown, Toxey, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Mt. Sterling, Sweet Water, Dixons Mills, Morvin, Nanafalia, Pine Hill, Camden, and Millers Ferry.
LEVEL 4 RISK TO OUR NORTH… The Level 4 (out of 5) risk extends northward into much of west and central Alabama, including: Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Northport, Hoover, Montevallo, Clanton, Selma, Marion, Centreville, Linden, Demopolis, York, Livingston, Eutaw, Moundville, Greensboro, Gordo, Aliceville, Fayette, Hamilton, Vernon, Jasper, Double Springs, Russellville, Clanton, Oneonta, Leeds, Alexander City, Lake Martin, Talladega, Gadsden, Anniston, and surrounding areas. Jackson (MS), Starkville (MS), Oxford (MS), Meridian (MS), Monroe (LA), and McComb (MS) are also included in this higher risk zone.
LEVEL 3 RISK FOR MUCH OF LOCAL AREA… Other than previously mentioned locales in Clarke and Washington counties, the rest of us locally are involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk. Note that a Level 3 risk is uncommon (2-3 per year, local average) with scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms being likely on Sunday. Keep in mind, I simply cannot type out all locales. I do my best to include as many as possible. If you see a surrounding community, odds are you’re included in this zone. Level 3 risk: Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Wilmer, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Stockton, Loxley, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Foley, Elberta, Pensacola, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Jay, Milton, Pace, Munson, Allentown, Chumuckla, Laurel Hill, Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Lenox, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Owassa, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Red Level, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Wing, Straughn, Gantt, Lockhart, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Frisco City, Excel, McIntosh, and Deer Park, and Vinegar Bend.
LEVEL 3 RISK ACROSS ALABAMA & THE DEEP SOUTH… I can’t recall seeing such an expansive Level 3 risk zone across much of the Deep South. Widespread tornadoes and damaging winds will be possible on Sunday. You’re involved in this Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone if you are in or near these areas: Montgomery, Auburn, Troy, Tuskegee, Eufaula, Luverne, Hayneville, Wetumpka, Union Springs, Valley, Daleville, Ft. Rucker, Abbeville, Dothan, Geneva, Samson, Elba, Enterprise, Ft. Payne, Centre, Boaz, Huntsville, Decatur, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Atlanta (GA), New Orleans (LA), Little Rock (AR), Memphis (TN), Nashville (TN), Chattanooga (TN), Biloxi (MS), and Macon (GA).
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have the latest information posted by 7AM Sunday on Facebook, Twitter, and in the RedZone Weather app. Please join me for that on Sunday morning. See you then!
Have a nice evening!
