TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING… There continues to be an enhanced severe weather risk setting up for Sunday evening when tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will become concerns across much of the Deep South. The Storm Prediction Center includes nearly all of south Alabama and northwest Florida in this Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone where numerous severe storms will be possible. The main window for strong to severe storms will happen from 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday with the core risk locally happening from 6PM to 11PM. If tornado warnings or higher-end severe thunderstorm warnings become necessary for our area, we will provide our live, uninterrupted severe weather video coverage to bring you the very latest. Before we get to Sunday, a few thunderstorms are possible today as well. Some of these storms could be noisy at times and produce gusty winds. We’re also looking ahead to (take a deep breath!) yet another potent risk of strong to severe storms setting up for Thursday. I’ve got all the details for you on this Saturday morning, below.
SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY… We had a few showers and thunderstorms earlier this morning, particularly near the coast. Any lingering showers and storms will move out of our area by 11AM most likely. This afternoon into the early evening hours will be dry and warm. High temperatures today will peak in the low-80s.
STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT… It is worth mentioning that at least some weather models have alluded to the idea of a complex of thunderstorms moving across our region tonight (Saturday night) between 9PM and 2AM. The overall severe weather risk with this specific round of storms would be low, if the complex of storms ever materializes. I count this as more of an outlier scenario as of now, but I do want you to at least be aware of the low-end possibility for some rain and thunder at times this evening.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK THROUGH TONIGHT… (This is valid for today and separate than the other risk (Level 3) in place for tomorrow.) The Storm Prediction Center has decided to include the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid today into tonight to account for the low-end potential of a stronger storm or two. This is more precautionary than anything else. The overall tornado risk today into tonight remains very low, with the more significant tornado risk setting up for Sunday evening. Any storms that can become stronger today will pose a risk of gusty winds and hail.
FEW SHOWERS & STORMS SUNDAY MORNING… Sunday morning will be similar to today with a chance of showers and thunderstorms locally. I expect most of these showers and storms across our local area on Sunday morning to be pretty tame with little to no issues in the way of severe weather locally. There likely will be a cluster of heavy rain and thunderstorms to our north ongoing early (3AM to 9AM) Sunday morning. This area of storms will move west to east across the central part of Alabama, bringing with it a chance of strong to severe storms there. Note this area of storms is different than the one that will move across our area later in the day.
UPDATED: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – P.M. SUNDAY INTO A.M. MONDAY… Timing for severe weather locally has been modified slightly. 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 6PM to 11PM Sunday will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms could move into west Alabama as early as 3PM. More likely though, storms will move in around 5 or 6PM in the evening and progressively move across the region from west to east.
LEVEL 3 RISK LOCALLY… Vast majority of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida remain involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk. This means that numerous severe storms will be possible on Sunday into early Monday. If you see your community name OR a nearby community name, you’re involved in this risk. Level 3 risk on Sunday P.M. includes Mobile, Pensacola, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Citronelle, Wilmer, Theodore, Mt. Vernon, Calvert, Chatom, Wagerville, Fruitdale, McIntosh, Millry, Coffeeville, Toddtown, Jackson, Whatley, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Megargal, Mexia, Peterman, Perdue Hill, Evergreen, Repton, Lyeffion, Range, Lenox, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Andalusia, Red Level, Gantt, Straughn, Pleasant Home, Opp, Florala, Onycha, Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Damascus, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Bay Minette, Perdido, Loxley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Foley, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Gonzalez, Ensley, Milton, Pace, Niceville, Harold, Holt, Munson, Jay, Chumuckla, Allentown, Crestview, Laurel Hill, and Baker.
LEVEL 3 RISK TO OUR NORTH & EAST… There is a large swath of Alabama to our east and to our north also involved in this Level 3 risk zone. Same type risk in those areas with numerous severe storms being possible. This includes Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Selma, Demopolis, Butler, Camden, Hayneville, Luverne, Troy, Elba, Enterprise, Samson, Geneva, Dothan, Daleville, Abbeville, Ft. Rucker, Eufaula, Phenix City, Opelika, Alexander City, Lanett, Valley, Wetumpka, Rockford, Clanton, Prattville, Maplesville, Marion, Centreville, Eutaw, Livingston, Northport, Hoover, Calera, and Roanoke.
LEVEL 2 RISK AT IMMEDIATE COAST… The immediate beach zones of coastal Aabama and northwest Florida are involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk. Let me caution that just because these zones are in a slightly lower risk area does NOT mean that severe weather won’t happen. What it does mean is that the atmosphere may be slightly less favorable to support more intense thunderstorms that are more likely to the north of these areas. This includes Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Opal Beach, Navarre, Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, and Destin. Places like Santa Rosa Beach, Seaside, Rosemary Beach, Panama City, Port St. Joe, Mexico Beach, Wewahitchka, Blountstown are also included in this Level 2 risk zone.
TORNADO RISK FOR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA… ALL of south Alabama and ALL of northwest Florida are involved in this tornado risk zone. The greatest risk of tornadoes will happen over inland areas of south Alabama, locally. The atmosphere will be volatile and unstable across the entire region, thus we cannot rule out the possibility of multiple tornadoes locally. A strong tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out, although it seems like damaging winds and brief tornadoes are the more likely scenario. As I always caution, though, if a tornado (big or small) affects YOU, it’s a big deal.
DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY… We should have a good idea early Sunday evening whether tornadoes or damaging winds will be the biggest concern with this system once we get a better handle of the specific atmospheric setup going into Sunday night. Regardless of if tornadoes or damaging straight line winds become the main concern, both hazards can be very serious. Please treat severe thunderstorm warnings on Sunday into early Monday as you would a tornado warning.
LARGE HAIL & FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE… In addition to the tornado and damaging wind risk, flash flooding and hail will also be concerns with this severe weather potential. The greatest chance of flash flooding will happen across inland areas of south Alabama. Monroe, Butler, Conecuh, and Covington counties locally are the areas where flash flooding is most likely to happen. This is because these are the counties that will probably pick up the greatest rainfall totals.
PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS… Unlike the significant severe weather event last (Easter) Sunday, this event will likely be a much more productive rainmaker, with most spots across the region picking up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in total. There will be isolated higher amounts, and flash flooding could quickly become an issue if storms train over the same areas.
WARM TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY… We briefly get a break from the rain and storms on Monday and Tuesday ahead of more showers becoming possible late Wednesday ahead of another severe weather risk setting up for Thursday. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be in the mid-80s with morning lows in the upper-50s.
ANOTHER POTENT ROUND OF STORMS ON THURSDAY… There continues to be growing concern about yet another upcoming severe weather risk setting up for Thursday, April 23. That is five days out from today. Early weather model guidance points to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across the Deep South with a potential tornado risk involved. Let’s get through the event on Sunday evening and then we will start focusing our attention on Thursday. Note that it is not at all uncommon to have concurrent severe weather events “regularly” this time of year as we are going through the core of our primary severe weather season. Odds are we will have a warmer and quieter pattern as we get into the month of May.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATES… I will have updates throughout the day into tonight and many updates on Sunday as needed in the RedZone Weather app. Even when we are not live on Facebook, I’m constantly posting content in the app and on redzoneweather.com. My next detailed update will be posted later this evening. See you then!
Have a nice Saturday!