LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK ON THURSDAY; TORNADOES POSSIBLE AGAIN… Thursday will be another day that could feature severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding across parts of the Deep South, including right here in Alabama and northwest Florida. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk for ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida, meaning numerous severe storms will be possible. There is a chance that some of the tornadoes may be strong. We’re watching model guidance carefully to discern if strong tornadoes will be a likelihood and we should have a better idea of this by tomorrow night. Just like the last rounds of severe weather, damaging winds will also be a concern. This system will probably manifest in two distinct waves. The first will be a weakening squall line that may or may not reach our area from Mississippi. The main risk in this squall line will be damaging winds and brief tornadoes. The second, more significant round of severe weather will happen from the early afternoon into the evening hours of Thursday. This is when strong tornadoes may happen. Be sure to check back in with me tomorrow and especially on Thursday morning as look ahead to this potentially significant round of severe weather! Further convective outlook upgrades may be required, meaning a Level 4 (out of 5) risk MAY need to be introduced. Even if not, a Level 3 risk is the enhanced risk and quite significant.
UPDATED: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING ON THURSDAY… 5AM to 10AM is the five hour window when strong to severe storms are most likely to happen across inland areas of south Alabama on Thursday morning. Then, we will have another (potentially far more potent) round of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday evening across the entire region of south Alabama and northwest Florida. The timeframe for this more potent round is 2PM to 10PM, with the core risk being from 4PM to 8PM. We are continuing to refine the timeframe for all of this. Please be sure to check back with me tomorrow (Wednesday) morning and then again tomorrow evening for the very latest detailed info about this.
The following detailed information has not changed since my post this morning and remains completely on point.
CLOUDS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY… Before we get to our next round of active weather on Thursday, we have one more nice day on tap for Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the mid-50s by 6AM Wednesday ahead of increasing cloudiness across the area by tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday will peak in the 80-83° range.
FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING… We could have a few spotty areas of rain Wednesday night after 9PM, especially across west Alabama in areas west of the Alabama River (Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo counties). Communities on the eastern flank of our area like Crestview, Destin, Andalusia, Opp, Greenville, and Luverne will probably be dry until we get to the early morning hours of Thursday.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… Again, I know folks are probably sick of hearing about severe weather. I understand. It certainly is not ideal, by any stretch of the imagination, to have back-to-back-to-BACK significant severe weather events like this. Perhaps now more than ever when people may be tuning all of this out, please tag someone that may not be as “weather aware” as you are. We need everyone to be aware of the potential for tornadoes and damaging winds across our region yet again on Thursday.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS – THURSDAY… All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding. The greater tornado risk may set up on the eastern half of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida where the better combination of “atmospheric ingredients” may come together to support tornadoes.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK… All locales in south Alabama and all locales in northwest Florida are involved in this Level 3 risk valid for Thursday. Level 3 risk on Thursday: Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Straughn, Red Level, Wing, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Forest Home, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Repton, Range, Belleville, Owassa, Lyeffion, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Frisco City, Excel, Mexia, Perdue Hill, Peterman, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Coffeeville, Whatley, Chatom, Leroy, Wagerville, McIntosh, Millry, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Brewton, Damascus, Bay Minette, Stockton, Stapleton, Loxley, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Magnolia Springs, Elberta, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Creola, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Molino, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Warrington, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Milton, Pace, Jay, Chumuckla, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Whitfield, Munson, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Baker, Milligan, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, Niceville, and surrounding areas. These are just a few of the locales involved. If you don’t see your specific town and you’re in south Alabama or northwest Florida, you’re still included in this Level 3 (out of 5) risk.
LEVEL 3 RISK TO OUR NORTH & EAST… Much of central and southeast Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle is also involved in this Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone: Birmingham, Montgomery, Auburn, Opelika, Dothan, Geneva, Samson, Slocomb, Enterprise, Elba, Daleville, Abbeville, Eufaula, Union Springs, Troy, Hayneville, Selma, Camden, Linden, Sweet Water, Demopolis, Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Prattville, Wetumpka, Alexander City, Valley, Lanett, Tuskegee, Rockford, Talladega, Heflin, Lake Martin, Hoover, Leeds, Roanoke, Marianna, Panama City, Seaside, DeFuniak Springs, Port St. Joe, Tallahassee, Atlanta (GA), Macon (GA), Valdosta (GA), Savannah (GA), Jacksonville (FL), and surrounding areas.
DON’T FALL INTO THE COMPARISON TRAP… I do not like to get into the “comparison game” where folks attempt to compare past and future severe weather events. Will this severe weather event on Thursday be similar to the high impact, widespread event that happened two days ago on Sunday with multiple tornadoes and widespread damage? It is possible, but I also cannot say that definitively. This certainly is NOT a low-end event as the risk is higher than that. The truth is if a tornado OR damaging winds affects you in any way, shape, or form, that is a big deal. Bottom line: Be ready for severe weather again on Thursday.
APRIL IS OUR BIG SEVERE WEATHER MONTH… Keep in mind that while it may feel exhausting or frustrating to have so many rounds of severe weather, it is quite normal for Alabama and northwest Florida to have multiple rounds of active weather in April. We are in the heart of our primary severe weather and tornado season, which generally runs from March 1 to the end of April. Once we get into the month of May, I expect we will catch some type of break and the overall pattern will change somewhat. We have this potential round of severe storms setting up on Thursday and the next round potentially this Sunday, April 26, but hopefully after that we will start to see some “light at the end of the tunnel,” in terms of our active weather pattern settling down.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have your next highly detailed, new post uploaded by 7AM tomorrow morning. We will analyze the latest convective outlook and bring it to you along with the latest new details. Until then, I will have more brief updates tonight and overnight in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a nice evening!
