TRACKING MULTIPLE TROPICAL WAVES; HOT, HUMID, P.M. STORMS TODAY… The tropics are becoming more active as we are now tracking three distinct systems that have a potential of becoming tropical storms in the days ahead. Despite this possibility, it’s good news that none of these systems pose any immediate issues for Alabama or northwest Florida. We’ve got a full roundup below discussing each tropical system. Locally today, we’ll be tracking showers and thunderstorms that bubble up in the heat of the day, just like the last few days. High temperatures on this Tuesday will be in the mid-90s with heat index values at or above the 100 degree mark this afternoon into this evening. Let’s look at your forecast details.
TROPICS: TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN GULF THIS WEEK… Perhaps the tropical system that has the greatest chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next few days is the tropical wave we’ve been tracking since Saturday, currently located over central Cuba and the western part of The Bahamas. This tropical wave will move over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico starting later today and into Wednesday. The system, regardless of if formal development happens, will continue to quickly move west-northwest toward the Louisiana and Texas coastline later this week and into the upcoming weekend. Direct local impacts, other than high waves and rip currents at local beaches, are not expected. From NHC: “Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave. This system is expected to move west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida today into tonight, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, across the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development of this system once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.
TROPICS: LOW PRESSURE NEAR TEXAS… In addition to the tropical wave currently over The Bahamas and central Cuba, we’re also watching an area of low pressure situated near/at the coast of Texas this morning. Regardless of if formal development happens this morning or early this afternoon, this system will bring heavy rain to parts of east Texas. No direct local impacts are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida. From the NHC discussion: “Surface observations indicate that a weak low pressure area is located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized during the past several hours. However, the system is expected to move inland over Texas later today before significant additional development can occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana during the next day or two.”
TROPICS: TROPICAL WAVE IN ATLANTIC… A tropical wave located about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the western coast of Africa continues moving east near 40 Degrees West longitude. The system is fairly low in latitude (near 9°). This system has a brief chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 24-48 hours, but even if that happens, atmospheric shear will likely rip the system apart as we go into the upcoming weekend. Here is the NHC discussion concerning this system: “Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little in organization during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. By Friday and over the weekend, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.”
SCATTERED STORMS TODAY AND OVER NEXT FEW DAYS… Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a hallmark feature of our forecast today, tomorrow, and each day in the next 7 days. This certainly is not uncommon (at all) for the month of July. Usually, the only thing in July that can change our forecast in a significant way is if we have an imminent tropical system directly affecting our local area, which we currently do not and are not expecting that at any point in the next week. The tropical system to our south this week could potentially fling some additional moisture in from the south, but even that may be a bit of a stretch. Any pop-up storms today or in the days ahead that can manage to become stronger could produce gusty winds, lots of lightning, and very heavy downpours of rain. Widespread severe weather is not expected.
HOT, HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE… High temperatures are projected to continue to be in the low- to mid-90s in each of the next 7 days. Morning lows will be in the low-70s. It is noted that we don’t see any signs of any cold air intrusions into the Southeastern U.S. anytime in the next 3-4 weeks. That is typical for July. It’s simply too difficult to get any meaningful cold air this far south during this time of the year. Usually, we start to get some hints of cold air first in September.
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See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Have a nice day!