90% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM IN GULF SOON; GONZALO MORE ORGANIZED… Tropical Storm Gonzalo is on the board as a strengthening tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean this evening with another tropical storm expected to form in the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or on Thursday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a 90% chance of a tropical storm forming to our south across the central part of the Gulf of Mexico as an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave continues moving west-northwest. Local impacts from this system will probably be negligible with high waves and rip currents being possible at local beaches. Land area impacts from what will likely become Tropical Storm Hanna are not expected locally. Significant rainfall and flash flooding will be possible across coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana this weekend, regardless of if formal development happens. We’re also keeping close tabs on a system that may (or may not) have Gulf impacts in about a week. That system is Tropical Storm Gonzalo, currently located east of the Lesser Antilles. Gonzalo is becoming more organized but there are questions this evening as to if the system can hold its strength as we go into early next week. We’re also watching afar as Hurricane Douglas threatens Hawaii. Join me in this special live video update for all the details.
INVEST 91L IN GULF LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON… An Air Force “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft crew has been investigating the area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave in the central Gulf of Mexico over the last several hours. Thunderstorms remain poorly organized, but the system seems to gradually be coming together. The National Hurricane Center suggests there is now a 90% chance of a tropical storm forming before the system reaches the Texas coast later this week. Impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be limited to high waves and an increased risk of rip currents at local beaches. No land impacts are expected due to this system locally, regardless of if/when formal development happens. If the system becomes a tropical storm before landfall, it will take the name “Hanna” and be the earliest named “H” storm on record.
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO TO REACH LESSER ANTILLES SATURDAY… Tropical Storm Gonzalo warrants our attention in the days ahead until we can completely rule out local impacts. The long term prognosis for Gonzalo remains unclear this evening. What is clear is that interests in the Lesser Antilles, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress of Gonzalo. NHC has the projected path/cone of uncertainty draped across the Caribbean. We note that most global models show a northwesterly turn in the long term, but it is too early to give ANY type of indication where Gonzalo ends up or if it will move into the Gulf of Mexico. I’ve seen some outlandish posts and YouTube channels prognosticating a move into the Gulf of Mexico by this tropical storm. That is simply outlandish to suggest at this point. Could it happen? Yep. Is it likely to happen? Nope, not at this point. Why isn’t it likely? More about that in the paragraph below.
GONZALO COULD RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN — OR FADE AWAY ENTIRELY… Track guidance in forecasts for tropical cyclones has *substantially* improved over the last 10-15 years. We’re in a totally different universe compared to the hyperactive 2004 and 2005 seasons. What has not improved as much, however, is intensity forecasting for tropical systems. NHC and the whole weather enterprise still really struggles with good intensity forecasts. While there is very high to near certain confidence Gonzalo will move into the eastern Caribbean this weekend, there is LOW confidence in how the system will look at that point. Will it be a hurricane? Will it be a fading out tropical wave/remnant low? Either of those scenarios are plausible. What seems LIKELY at this point is a short term strengthening system followed by weakening in 4-5 days. Obviously a weakening hurricane would stand a much greater chance of survival into the central and ultimately western Caribbean compared to a weak, sickly tropical storm. If the vortex of Gonzalo can survive drier air and increasing atmospheric shear this weekend into early next week, the chances of Gulf of Mexico impacts will significantly increase. If, however, the vortex is ripped apart by the external factors (shear and dry air), odds are the system won’t redevelop. Big takeaway: Gonzalo will probably be a hurricane as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Beyond that, we’ll have to see what happens.
HURRICANE DOUGLAS TO THREATEN HAWAII… Hawaii is certainly a bit outside of our primary coverage area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. It is worth mentioning, however, that folks with any type of interest in Hawaii should keep an eye on Hurricane Douglas, currently situated about 4 days east of the Hawaiian Islands. Douglas will cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane Basin soon and potentially threaten Hawaii this weekend into early next week. The official NHC forecast calls for Douglas to move near the Big Island of Hawaii early Sunday morning. Heads up, Hawaii! There appears to be a hurricane on the way that could bring heavy rain and strong winds to the islands. We note the official NHC forecast calls for Douglas to become a dangerous major hurricane tomorrow over the open waters of the Pacific southeast of Hawaii on approach to the state.
LOCALLY, POP-UP STORMS & HEAT REMAIN THE HEADLINES… While the tropics have certainly come alive in a significant way over the last 48 hours, locally it appears our forecast is on track. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will happen on Thursday, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Just like the last few days, storms will start around the coast and progressively move inland along the seabreeze. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s on Thursday.
APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the graphics and details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video