TRACKING TD8/HANNA & GONZALO; SCATTERED STORMS LOCALLY… The tropics have officially stolen the thunder of the forecast as we are now tracking Tropical Storm Gonzalo in the Atlantic and T.D. 8 (soon-to-be Tropical Storm Hanna) in the central Gulf of Mexico. TD8/Hanna-to-be is headed toward Texas, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is strengthening and moving toward the Lesser Antilles, where a Hurricane Watch is now in effect. Meanwhile, here in south Alabama and northwest Florida, we’re stuck in a bubble of seemingly endless heat, humidity, with scattered pop-up storms that primarily happen in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures today will again be in the low- to mid-90s. Storms will likely be most numerous from 3PM to 8PM. I’ve got all of your forecast details below.
TD8/HANNA TO MOVE TOWARD TEXAS… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Eight last evening. There is a chance by the time you’re seeing this video that the system will have been upgraded to a tropical storm. When that happens, the system will take the name “Hanna.” The center of TD8 is located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Alabama beaches. TD8/Hanna is moving west-northwest at about 6 mph. The official forecast from NHC calls for the center of the system to reach the Texas coast on Saturday, most likely as a weak tropical storm. We note that a Tropical Storm Watch continues to be in effect from Port Mansfield to High Island, Texas. Heavy rain and flash flooding will clearly be the main issue because of TD8/Hanna for parts of southwest Louisiana and Texas through early next week. Details about local impacts from TD8/Hanna are below.
LOCAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT FOR TD8/HANNA… High waves and dangerous rip currents are likely at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches today, on Friday, and into the weekend. Red flags will likely be flying at many of the area beaches. Please heed the warnings and don’t get out into the rough surf, especially if you’re not a good swimmer. Rip currents have killed more people in our local area *than all other natural hazards combined* since 1996. Most of these deaths are due to people from out of the area visiting local beaches. Land area impacts are NOT expected at this time due to TD8/Hanna.
GONZALO CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE IN ATLANTIC… Tropical Storm Gonzalo warrants our attention in the days ahead as the system continues to quickly move westward across the Atlantic Ocean. The official NHC forecast calls for Gonzalo to become a hurricane later today, tonight, or on Friday. An overall weakening trend will likely commence this weekend once Gonzalo moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea near the Lesser Antilles. This is due to hostile upper-level atmospheric winds AND drier air that is a part of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust. There actually is a big plume of dust north of the system now that could act to weaken it in the latter half of the weekend. Let’s hope that happens. Best case scenario (and this certainly is still in the realm of possibilities) is that the circulation of Gonzalo is disrupted so substantially that the system weakens into a remnant trough and ultimately dissipates near Hispaniola. I would suggest, however, based on the trends today and yesterday that Gonzalo probably won’t dissipate completely but instead will emerge into the central Caribbean as a fractured/weaker storm. If that happens, we really would have to ramp up our monitoring of the system as Gulf impacts could become possible toward the latter half of NEXT week.
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING GONZALO… There is still plenty of uncertainty concerning what will ultimately happen with Tropical Storm Gonzalo. It is a small, compact system that will be subject to fluctuations in strength (both increasing and decreasing) over the next several days. No one, and I mean NO ONE, knows just yet if this will be an issue for the Gulf Coast. We’ll keep watching and I’ll keep bringing you the latest updates in the RedZone Weather app.
HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS… Due to the approach of Tropical Storm Gonzalo, Barbados is now under a Hurricane Watch. I expect more of the Lesser Antilles to go under hurricane watches and tropical storm watches later today. Interests in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress of this developing tropical storm.
MORE TROPICAL WAVES TO EMERGE FROM AFRICA… August through October is historically the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. We note that the global models are beginning to show indications that we will have more in the way of tropical storms developing in the Atlantic Ocean over the next few weeks. TD8/Hanna and Gonzalo very well may be the tip of the iceberg of the next few weeks. Buckle up and we’ll get through it together! No need to stress or worry – it’s hurricane season and this is expected.
SCATTERED STORMS AT TIMES THIS EVENING… Today will likely be a near carbon copy of yesterday with P.M. showers and thunderstorms around. High temperatures are slated to peak in the 91-95° range with heat index values near 100° this afternoon. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected today, although some of the storms could be strong at times with heavy downpours of rain, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning. I’ll have radar updates posted as needed today in the RedZone Weather app.
PATTERN SET TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK… Consistency continues to be a main feature of our 7 Day Forecast. Rain chances remain in the 40-70% chance range each day with high temperatures expected to be in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s.
HURRICANE DOUGLAS TO AFFECT HAWAII… I try to keep the forecast focus localized to Alabama, northwest Florida, and the Deep South, but I realize that sometimes it is worth mentioning when a potentially high impact event is set to happen in other parts of the nation. Hurricane Douglas is a category 2 hurricane with maximum winds at 100 mph. Douglas will likely become a major hurricane later today as it moves toward the Hawaiian Islands. If you have interests in Hawaii, you’ll certainly want to keep close tabs on this system. Impacts from Douglas will be possible in Hawaii as early as Saturday.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the graphics and details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video. Hope you have a great day!