FEW STORMS THIS EVENING; RAIN & STORMS MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND… Cumulus clouds and heat remain the local weather story, with a very low (10-20%) chance of storms today. Temperatures will reach the 90s again this afternoon as our consistent summer weather pattern is set to continue on this Thursday. Just like what happened yesterday, I expect rain and storms to be widely spaced this afternoon into this evening. There could be one or two areas of localized downpours today, but vast majority of us will remain dry. Rain chances are set to rise this weekend as a persistent upper-level trough across our region begins to weaken and move away. This will allow daily convection in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms to return this weekend into early next week. Looking ahead over the next 7 days, the tropics are set to remain quiet! Let’s look at all of your Thursday forecast details.
HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS… Unfortunately, I don’t see anything in the model signals that suggests any cooler (or cold) air anytime soon. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s in each of the next 7 to 10 days. Morning lows will consistently be in the low-70s. This is typical for early- to mid-August when temperatures don’t really ever move that much unless we have a tropical system or hurricane that causes clouds to linger for days. That is currently not in the forecast.
EVENING STORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK… Our streak of drier days is set to come to an end slowly over the next 2-3 days. Rain chances will return to more seasonal levels (40-60%) as we go into Sunday and the first half of the upcoming week. No signs of organized severe weather at this point, but these daily pop-up thunderstorms can, and likely will, produce torrential downpours of rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds in the strongest of the storms.
INVEST 94L HANGING ON BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN… The only area of disturbed weather that the National Hurricane Center has outlined in their Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook is what is left of INVEST 94L, located southwest of Bermuda. The system is moving southwest very slowly. NHC gives the system a 10% chance of development through the weekend. Their latest discussion reads: A small but well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This low is expected to drift west-southwestward during the next couple of days. Any development of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to dry air and increasing upper-level winds by the weekend.
CARIBBEAN & GULF REMAIN QUIET AS OF NOW… The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea remain quiet with no tropical storms expected to develop over the next 5-7 days. I had several questions Tuesday night about a viral post going around social media showing a raw model output image of a major hurricane in the Gulf in late August. I had this same paragraph in yesterday’s forecast discussion but it is worth repeating: A few thoughts on this… 1) It’s August. Could a major hurricane form in the Gulf in 16 days? Yep, it’s very possible. 2) Is that scenario likely at this point? NO, it’s not. Model confidence beyond 7 days out is very, very low. Beyond 14 days out is simply throwing things on a wall and seeing what sticks. There is zero skill in forecasting in that range. 3) When “Tropical Weather Page,” and “Uncle John’s Weather Shack” and similar vague named pages on Facebook post these viral, one model solutions, it is not only irresponsible, it’s also dangerous. Why? Because “cry wolf syndrome” is a very real thing. People that are not as “weather aware” generally have no idea what’s real and what’s not on social media. If you are reading this far into my post this morning, odds are you’re QUITE “weather aware” (and I really appreciate that!). Friends don’t let friends share these fake, fear mongering posts!
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!