NOAA OUTLOOK: “HYPERACTIVE” HURRICANE SEASON PROJECTED… NOAA and Colorado State University (CSU) are both predicting that the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be “hyperactive,” similar in some aspects to the 1995, 2005, and 2010 seasons. Seasonal outlooks do not forecast what specific areas of the Atlantic basin (like the Gulf of Mexico, as an example) will have more in the way of activity. If historical trends are any indication, however, (and they are) usually no particular part of the basin is immune from seeing more in the way of named storms. While long time viewers and readers know that I encourage everyone to take seasonal outlooks with a proverbial grain of salt, there is very little (if any) doubt that this hurricane season will be one for the record books. Let’s talk about why.
HISTORIC, FAST START TO HURRICANE SEASON… Why am I so confident in the idea that hurricane season will be quite active? Look at what has happened so far: We’ve already had 9 (yes, nine) named storms and it’s only August 6th. The ninth named storm of most hurricane seasons happens in early October. According to NOAA, “historically, only two named storms form on average by early August.” Two. Not anywhere close to nine. Majority of the named storms this year have set records as to their early formation. In other words, Hurricane Isaias set the record for the earliest forming “I-named” storm by surpassing the naming of Hurricane Irene in 2005 by eight days. We have already had five named storms make landfall in the United States this year (Bertha, Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, and Isaias). It is true that sometimes you’ll have quite an active start to hurricane season but a more quiet end, but conditions and parameters that fueled the season to be hyperactive thus far look to remain in place over the next few months.
LA NINA IN PLACE IN THE PACIFIC FUELS STORMS IN ATLANTIC… It is mind boggling to think about, but the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean often have a pronounced impact on just how active (or how inactive) hurricane season is in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. This year, the teleconnection in place is La Nina, where the ocean temperatures near the Equator in the Pacific west of Ecuador are COOLER than average. This teleconnection can cause the wind shear that would normally be in place across parts of the Atlantic basin to be weaker than average, thus allowing storms to develop, be stronger than they otherwise would be, and potentially last longer.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL “ACE” VALUES EXPECTED… This is a great explainer from the NOAA press release this morning discussing the revised outlook. “A comprehensive measure of the overall hurricane season activity is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the combined intensity and duration of all named storms during the season. Based on the ACE projection, combined with the above-average numbers of named storms and hurricanes, the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 85%, with only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. “This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.” You can read the article in its entirety here: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-hurricane-season-possible-for-atlantic-basin
CAN’T GET SPECIFIC TOO FAR OUT… While seasonal outlooks are sometimes helpful, keep in mind that the above information from NOAA and CSU are merely helping to paint a broad picture of what is to come. In other words, we’re driving down the road through hurricane season. We can see that there likely are some “hurricane obstacles” in the way of our drive but what those obstacles are remains to be seen. In other words, no one (and I mean NO ONE) can say for sure when and where hurricanes will (or won’t) happen over the next few months. Odds are the U.S. WILL have a few more tropical storm or hurricane impacts but it’s too early to know exactly where. This gets into another problem that we’ve seen over the last few days (outlined below).
*PLEASE* DON’T TRUST THE FEAR MONGERS… Leave it to a person with no meteorology training whatsoever to be able to get 10,000 shares on Facebook showing one model image from one model run of a major hurricane in the Gulf in 16 days. A few thoughts on this… 1) It’s August. Could a major hurricane form in the Gulf in 16 days? Yep, it’s very possible. 2) Is that scenario likely at this point? NO, it’s not. Model confidence beyond 7 days out is very, very low. Beyond 14 days out is simply throwing things on a wall and seeing what sticks. There is zero skill in forecasting in that range. 3) When “Tropical Weather Page,” and “Uncle John’s Weather Shack” and similar vague named pages on Facebook post these viral, one model solutions, it is not only irresponsible, it’s also dangerous. Why? Because “cry wolf syndrome” is a very real thing. People that are not as “weather aware” generally have no idea what’s real and what’s not on social media. If you are reading this far into my post this morning, odds are you’re QUITE “weather aware” (and I really appreciate that!). Friends don’t let friends share these fake, fear mongering posts!’
TROPICS ARE QUIET FOR NOW… The bit of good news I have this evening is that we are NOT expecting tropical storm formation this weekend or early next week! The National Hurricane Center in their Tropical Weather Outlook suggests the Atlantic basin (including the Gulf and the Caribbean) will remain quiet through Monday. Even hyperactive hurricane seasons can have extended breaks, and that is certainly a good thing!
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM Friday. See you then!