TROPICS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a 30-40% chance that two new tropical storms may develop later this week. There are two tropical waves located in the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. One of these tropical waves will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea later this week, while the other crosses the Atlantic. NHC suggests there is a growing probability that one or both of these tropical waves will strengthen and eventually become tropical storms later in the week. While it is far too early to say whether Gulf of Mexico impacts will be possible, we note that early model guidance suggests that the “first/leader” wave has at least some chance of moving into the Gulf in about week. Atmospheric conditions look to be at least somewhat (if not significantly) favorable for additional development. The next eight weeks are the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and more tropical activity like this can be expected.
MOSTLY SUNNY, HOT SUNDAY EVENING… Whew! It is quite hot and quite humid across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Sunday evening. Temperatures are peaking in the mid-90s across the region. Dewpoint temps are in the 70s, meaning the heat index is above 100° in many spots locally. Rain chances today are very low across our local area (<10% chance) since clouds won't be able to efficiently bubble up into cumulonimbus clouds like in previous days. You'll probably notice puffy, white cumulus clouds this afternoon into the early evening hours. Clouds will likely fade away near or just after sunset. Stay cool if you're going to be outside for an extended period of time today. FEW SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY… More atmospheric moisture will lend itself to more in the way of showers and thunderstorms on Monday. We have a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday in the P.M. hours. Severe weather is not expected but some of the stronger storms will produce heavy rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds in localized areas. Rain coverage will be similar on Tuesday in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be in the low-90s each day with heat index values likely to be over the 100 degree mark for 3-4 hours in the afternoon hours.
GREATER RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS WEEK… Rain and thunderstorms will become more pronounced as we get into the latter half of the week. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will feature scattered to numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours as a stationary front in the Gulf of Mexico lifts northward toward the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. High temperatures will again be near 90 with morning lows around 70 each day.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE WEAKENING… Outside of the developing tropical waves, we continue to watch what is left of Josephine, now a tropical depression located north of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Southwesterly shear continues to highly impact this weakening tropical depression. Josephine is expected to become a remnant area of low pressure over the next 2-3 days, if not sooner. Regardless of the rate of dissipation, Josephine won’t directly affect any land masses as it meets its demise soon.
KYLE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL… If you blinked this weekend, you might’ve missed Tropical Storm Kyle. An area of low pressure rapidly evolved off the coast of North Carolina on Friday, paving the way for a weak, brief tropical storm to form in the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Kyle has already become extratropical, meaning the final advisory has been issued by the National Hurricane Center.
ONLY 10 ATLANTIC HURRICANE NAMES LEFT… We have truly flown through the first 11 tropical storm/hurricane names in the 2020 Atlantic Basin Naming List. We now have 10 names left in the list before the Greek Alphabet will need to be employed for only the 2nd time ever. The first time this happened was in 2005 in what was then the most active Atlantic hurricane season ever recorded. 2020 is poised to potentially tie or break the number of named storms IF current trends continue. The next names on the 2020 naming list are Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. IF we get to the end of the list, that is when new named storms will take the names from the Greek Alphabet (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and so forth).
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video. Have a great evening!