TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 FORMS; LIKELY TO APPROACH GULF NEXT WEEK… The tropical disturbance formerly branded as INVEST 98L has strengthened into Tropical Depression 13 late on this Wednesday evening. The first projected path for TD13 is attached, showing the system moving near or just north of Puerto Rico this weekend. The National Hurricane Center ramps the system up to a strong tropical storm by early next week, although confidence in the intensity forecast is below normal due to uncertainty as to if the circulation of this new tropical depression will have land impacts in Puerto Rico or Hispaniola. If the system moves farther south, land interaction with the two islands (and ultimately Cuba) may hinder the system from becoming strong. If however, the new depression maintains its path or moves farther north, the system would be stronger (likely a hurricane) as it approaches South Florida and the Gulf of Mexico early next week.
INVEST 97L IN THE CARIBBEAN… Note TD13 is a totally different system than the tropical wave branded as INVEST 97L, currently located in the central Caribbean Sea. 97L will likely become a tropical storm when it reaches the WESTERN Caribbean Sea this weekend. That system is also expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday or Monday.
KEEP CLOSE TABS ON THE TROPICS… Be sure to check back with me on Thursday and Friday mornings in the regularly scheduled forecast videos at 7:15AM for the very latest on the very active tropics!
NEW TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING FROM AFRICA (99L SOON)… In addition to the tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea (97L) and new Tropical Depression 13, the National Hurricane Center is also keeping tabs on a robust tropical wave slated to move off of the African continent by Friday. This disturbance is (quite literally) on the other side of the world and is more of a curiosity at this point. Even if development happens soon, we have a long amount of time to track the system. Early model guidance points to a disturbance that may develop and recurve into the open waters of the Atlantic. From NHC: A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea and Sierra-Leone, Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern Atlantic on Friday. By early next week, however, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central tropical Atlantic.”
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have the next regularly scheduled RZW forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app on Thursday with the very latest information concerning all of the tropical disturbances. Have a nice overnight!