SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING; TROPICAL UPDATE… Thunderstorms will increase in coverage compared to the last few days on this Wednesday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Rain and storms will be most numerous this afternoon into this evening. Widespread severe weather issues are NOT expected today, although some of the storms may be strong at times with gusty winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning being the main concerns. Our focus will increasingly shift over the next few days to the tropics. INVEST 97L is a tropical wave located in the east-central Caribbean Sea, rapidly moving west-northwest at 15-20 mph. There is a high chance this tropical disturbance will become a tropical storm this weekend or early next week as it slows down in the western Caribbean. 97L will likely enter the southern Gulf of Mexico in some form, although it is still a bit too early to be specific about where and what the system will look like at that point. There is a separate, distinct tropical wave several hundred miles “behind” or to the east of 97L that is currently located in the central Atlantic Ocean that has been branded as INVEST 98L. Unlike 97L, this separate tropical wave will likely move near or north of the Lesser Antilles this weekend into early next week. Let’s look at all of your Wednesday forecast details.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY… P.M. thunderstorms will remain our lead local weather story through the upcoming weekend. Storms will be more numerous today and over the next few days due to an increasing amount of available Gulf moisture streaming into inland areas in the afternoon and evening hours. This moisture acts as fuel for thunderstorms to feed on and grow very tall and very capable of producing localized downpours. High temperatures today and over the next few days will be in the upper-80s and near 90 in most spots. Overnight lows will consistently be around the 70 degree mark.
NO SIGNS OF FORECAST CHANGES: HEAT & P.M. STORMS… The next 7 to 10 days look remarkably consistent, even for late August, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening hours each day. While rain chances will fluctuate, I don’t really see any signs of totally dry days. I certainly do not see any indications, unfortunately, of any cooler temperatures in sight. Highs will remain near 90 with morning lows in the upper-60s and near 70.
INVEST 97L IN THE CARIBBEAN TO APPROACH GULF… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is an 80% chance that a tropical storm will form because of INVEST 97L once the tropical disturbance reaches the western Caribbean Sea this weekend. Right now, 97L is in somewhat of an unfavorable spot for development, mainly due to dry air to the north of the disturbance. Increased moisture content from the south will potentially allow 97L to strengthen once it reaches areas near and just south and west of Jamaica in the Caribbean Sea. There is high confidence that whatever becomes of 97L (whether it is an open tropical wave, tropical depression, or tropical storm) will likely move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. That could be anywhere from the Bay of Campeche eastward to Cuba and south Florida. We really just don’t have a good grip at this point of where 97L will end up. Model guidance has trended toward a more westward solution over the last few runs, potentially setting up more issues for Mexico and Texas in about a week, but even that idea is not set in stone. This system remains in the category of “something to be aware of, but something to not panic about or stress over” at this point.
SEPARATE TROPICAL WAVE IN ATLANTIC MOVING WEST… Several hundred miles to the east of INVEST 97L, you’ll find a disorganized mess of showers and thunderstorms in the Atlantic Ocean. There is an elongated area of multiple mid-level circulations in the atmosphere in what is known as the ITCZ or Intertropical Convergence Zone. The National Hurricane Center continues to suggest there is a 90% chance that a tropical storm will emerge from this mess of showers and thunderstorms and move toward the northern Antilles later this week and into the weekend. Model guidance has shifted downward considerably in the projected strength of this system over the last 24 hours, and there is a good chance that we may either have a weak tropical storm or even an open, unnamed tropical wave this weekend. Again, something to watch in the days ahead, but definitely nothing to worry about at this point.
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See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!