TD13 LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE IN EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK… The National Hurricane Center now suggests we may have two hurricanes in the Gulf simultaneously early next week. TD14 is likely headed toward Texas and Louisiana. TD13 will potentially cross or move just south of South Florida or the Florida Keys and emerge into the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf late on Sunday. While it is still too early to say whether significant impacts will happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida because of TD13, confidence is growing in the idea that we will have local impacts because of this developing system. Let me be abundantly clear by saying there is a chance this system may not be a big deal at all for our local area, however there is also a growing chance this could be a formidable hurricane, perhaps even approaching our local area by midweek. Rapid strengthening is NOT in the official forecast for this system at this time, although it is important to note that idea has been presented by multiple models. Both TD13 and TD14 will likely become tropical storms today. Laura and Marco are the next two names on the naming lists. Let’s look at all of your Friday forecast details…
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS FROM TD13 NEXT WEEK… Confidence concerning potential local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains low since impacts from both Tropical Depression 13 and Tropical Depression 14 would not happen until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Local impacts appear more likely at this point due to Tropical Depression 13, currently in the Atlantic Ocean east of Puerto Rico. While local impacts will be possible, it is too early to suggest specifics for any given locale. Please check back with me over the next few days for the very latest on this developing situation. I explain more about why today will likely be a critical day for the development of Tropical Depression 13 below. Clarity will likely increase considerably by Saturday morning.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY; FEW STRONGER STORMS… Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day on this Friday across the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms near the coast will gradually fade away before another round of showers and thunderstorms pops up across inland areas this afternoon into this evening. The Storm Prediction Center includes ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk today. This risk is in place exclusively because of a very small risk of damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms. The tornado risk today remains very, very low. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s.
P.M. STORMS LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY… Our forecast will remain consistent in our ongoing summer pattern through Tuesday. There will be an elevated chance of showers and thunderstorms each day with high temps in the upper-80s. Morning lows will be around 70. Depending on the exact future tracks of TD13 and TD14, we will have to adjust rain chances higher (or potentially lower, in some scenarios).
CRITICAL DAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TD13… Today will give us at least some insight into the future of what will happen with Tropical Depression 13. The depression is approaching the northern Leeward Islands now. Where the center of circulation tracks will matter a great deal concerning future implications. If the center of the disorganized system moves into Puerto Rico or Hispaniola, the overall system will inevitably be much weaker as it moves westward rapidly in the days ahead. IF, however, the center of circulation can move a bit farther north and stay away from the high terrain of the Greater Antilles, there is a considerable chance that the intensity forecast will have to be increased. Right now, the National Hurricane Center has split the difference between two camps of model data. One camp (the GFS and ECMWF/Euro) have consistently kept TD13 much weaker with the center traversing the land areas of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and ultimately Cuba. Another set of models (CMC/Canadian and HWRF, as examples) have intensified the system as it moves west-northwest in the days ahead. I would suggest we’ll have better clarity as early as tonight but perhaps more likely on Saturday morning.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO… A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Marteen, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla. I expect these watches to be changed into a Tropical Storm Warning later today with a new Tropical Storm Watch issued for parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the Turks & Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas.
GULF IMPACTS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK DUE TO TD13… Regardless of which intensity route (discussed in the previous paragraph) TD13 takes, there is an increasing chance that Gulf of Mexico impacts will happen early next week. Multiple landfalls will be possible in the southeastern U.S. with one in South Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday, followed by another landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast from Pascagoula, Mississippi eastward to Tallahassee, Florida. Obviously that puts the entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in the crosshairs of what could be a strengthening hurricane likely late Tuesday or Wednesday.
TD14 FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES YUCATAN… Totally separate from TD13, we are also tracking Tropical Depression 14 in the western Caribbean Sea. TD14 is very near Cabo Gracias a Dios, which is on the Nicaragua-Honduras border. The center of circulation is very close to land, tracking WNW at 14 mph. The National Hurricane Center expects TD14 to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and ultimately become a hurricane before landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Once TD14 crosses the Yucatan and emerges into the southern Gulf, strengthening is expected to happen. NHC ramps the system up to a category 1 hurricane by Monday evening. The hurricane, at that point, would be approaching the Texas and Louisiana coast on Tuesday with landfall possible anywhere from Corpus Christi northeast to Grand Isle, Louisiana. The Houston metro area should closely monitor the progress of this developing storm as it appears impacts from TD14 appear likely.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR CANCUN… A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for parts of Mexico from Punta Herrero to Cancun. Parts of the Honduras coastline also remain under a Tropical Storm Warning.
HURRICANE HISTORY IN THE MAKING… As I recapped in the post about the Fujiwhara effect yesterday, there have only been two times in recorded history that two, distinct tropical storms have existed simultaneously in the Gulf of Mexico – once in 1933 and once in 1959. Having two hurricanes, however, in the Gulf at the same time has not happened since record-keeping began in the mid-1800s. If current NHC forecast guidance verifies, we will have two hurricanes in the Gulf simultaneously on Monday night or Tuesday. More about the Fujiwhara effect and the two precedents for multiple tropical storms in the Gulf can be found here.
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to our hurricane potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have plenty of updates posted throughout the day as needed in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed, longer form post will debut this evening. Have a great Friday!