FEW P.M. STORMS; TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will bubble up this afternoon into this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will again reach the low-90s by 3PM. P.M. storms will continue to be a fixture in our forecast over the next 5-7 days. Rain chances will be at their peak (60-70%) on Saturday and Sunday. We continue to monitor Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, both well away from land areas. There also is an area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean currently situated east of The Bahamas that will move toward the Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. Let’s look at your Thursday #rzw forecast video.
SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND… Scattered thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage somewhat as we go into the upcoming weekend. We’ll call it a 60-70% chance of showers and storms on both Saturday and Sunday. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected, but some of the storms could be on the strong side at times with gusty winds, torrential downpours, and cloud-to-ground lightning being the main concerns. I expect thunderstorms to continue to be on a “diurnal pattern,” with nearly all of the storms happening in the afternoon and early evening hours.
The tropics remain active. Our discussion from last evening remains on point.
GULF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK… The National Hurricane Center suggests there is now a low (20%) chance that a tropical storm may form in the southeast Gulf of Mexico this weekend or perhaps early next week. Right now, there is a disorganized area of storms east of The Bahamas just to the south of another system (INVEST 97L). This area of moisture will move over The Bahamas tomorrow into Friday and over South Florida Friday into Saturday. Development of a tropical storm may happen late Saturday, Sunday, or Monday. It is far too early for specific details on 3 things: 1) IF the system will develop into a classified tropical storm, 2) the ultimate strength of the system if development happens, and 3) the ultimate landfall location of this potential storm. At bare minimum, I expect increased rain chances locally next week from this area of showers and storms. We have more systems we are watching this evening in the tropics. Details are below.
PAULETTE & RENE WELL AWAY FROM LAND… Tropical Storm Paulette could be a threat to Bermuda in 4-5 days. Paulette will remain well away from land areas until then. Tropical Storm Rene will likely be a category 1 hurricane at some point on Thursday. Rene will remain out at sea and will most likely never be a threat to North America.
TROPICAL WAVE BEHIND RENE… Another tropical wave is expected to emerge from Africa into the far eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Cabo Verde Islands over the next 2 days. NHC suggests this system has a high (80%) chance of becoming a tropical storm as the disturbance moves west. Regardless, this system is on the other side of the world from us right now. The system may be a threat to the Leeward Islands in about a week. Something to watch, but not something to worry about right now.
INVEST 97L MOVING TOWARD CAROLINA COAST… A weak area of showers and thunderstorms, branded as INVEST 97L, is moving toward the North Carolina coast. Chances are dropping for this system to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of North Carolina over the next day or so. Regardless of formal development, increased rain chances and high waves will likely be the only impacts for the coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina.
I am recovering from wisdom tooth extraction surgery this morning. I hope to be able to have a full forecast video and discussion posted tomorrow morning. Until then, please see the abbreviated details of your forecast in this Thursday edition of the #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!