IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE LOCALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY… Direct local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be possible Monday into Tuesday from what will likely be a tropical storm or hurricane approaching landfall somewhere near our stretch of the Gulf Coast. This special Saturday morning edition of the RZW forecast video is being produced because of this threat. Tropical Depression 19 is expected to become a tropical storm (likely taking the name Sally) later today or tonight. TD19/Sally will move northwest across the Gulf, likely approaching our area on Sunday into Monday. Heavy rain, with total rain amounts of near 10 inches near the immediate coast, isolated tornadoes, and high wind near the coast will become possible. See the full rundown of details about all of this, below. We’re also tracking five (yes, five) other tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin, including Tropical Storm Paulette which will likely threaten Bermuda as a formidable hurricane on Monday. All the details are below.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – TD19/SALLY-TO-BE… Local impacts are expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida from Tropical Depression 19 (aka what will likely be Tropical Storm Sally) as early as Monday morning and as late as Tuesday into Wednesday. It is too early to be specific about timing for individual hazards associated with the storm, as the future track will largely determine the timing. Based on the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, the greatest threat from Sally will likely be a potentially significant threat of heavy rain, flash flooding, and potentially river and creek flooding even after the storm moves by. Rain amounts will vary across the region, with some spots inland likely getting less than 3 inches of rain in total while some areas closer to the coast may have upwards of 10 inches of total rainfall. High winds (near or perhaps just above hurricane force) will be possible in all of our coastal counties. Depending on the exact future track of TD19/Sally, tropical storm force winds may be possible across inland counties as well. Tornadoes will be a concern across the region from Monday into Tuesday, and perhaps even Wednesday morning. Storm surge and coastal flooding will become possible Monday into Tuesday, regardless of the exact future strength of the storm. In addition, dangerous rip currents and high waves are expected ahead of the storm on Sunday.
SCATTERED STORMS AT TIMES TODAY AND ON SUNDAY… Before our rendezvous with tropical trouble, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected (60% chance) on this Saturday and again (70% chance) on Sunday. Showers and storms will be greatest in coverage and intensity this afternoon into this evening. Cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds will be the concerns in the stronger storms today and tomorrow. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected and there is very little to no tornado risk today or on Sunday. High temperatures will be around 90 today and on Sunday with overnight lows around 72 degrees.
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD & HEAVY RAIN THREAT… The most widespread issue from TD19/Sally passing through our region early next week very well could be the risk of heavy rain that could lead to widespread flash flooding. River and creek flooding may also become a concern into the middle and latter half of the week, long after the circulation of TD19/Sally clears out. The latest rainfall guidance from the Weather Prediction Center calls for 2 to 3 inches of rain in inland counties with a steep rainfall gradient in place across coastal areas. Some spots near the immediate beach zones of Alabama and northwest Florida could have upwards of 10 inches of rainfall in total due to TD19/Sally. Flash flooding would quickly become a concern, depending on exactly where rain bands set up. River and creek flooding, especially in coastal counties, could also be a concern.
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE… Spin-up, tropical tornadoes will be a concern, depending on the exact future track of TD19/Sally. IF the storm happens to track along the current forecast “center path” (and that’s a big IF), our area would be on the volatile right, front quadrant of the storm, potentially increasing the tornado risk across the entire region (coastal and inland areas) Monday, Tuesday, and perhaps even into Wednesday. NOW is the time to make sure you have multiple ways to get urgent tornado warnings early next week.
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AT THE COAST; LESS CERTAIN INLAND… It is nearly impossible to say what specific locales will have high winds due to this storm since we don’t have a good grip just yet of the exact track and intensity of this storm. The following wind forecast/estimates are LIKELY to change in the hours and days ahead. High (50-70) winds may be possible at the immediate beach zones of Alabama and northwest Florida Monday into Tuesday morning. Inland areas, under the current guidance, would have wind gusts perhaps as high as 30-40 mph with sustained winds likely remaining under 30 mph. Keep in mind, these are early estimates and highly subject to change as new data arrives today into tomorrow.
TD19/SALLY-TO-BE MAY BE A HURRICANE MONDAY OR TUESDAY… While the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows TD19/Sally moving inland early Tuesday morning, keep in mind that there is a medium to high chance that this storm may become a hurricane before landfall. That is not a certainty by any stretch, but it definitely IS in the realm of possibilities. The range at landfall, at the moment, extends from tropical storm status to category 2 hurricane status. The most likely scenario is for TD19/Sally to be a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane at landfall. It should be noted that rapid intensification, while not exactly likely, could be possible on Sunday into Monday as the storm moves northwest across the Gulf of Mexico.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH JUST TO OUR EAST… A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Okaloosa-Walton County line eastward to the Ochlockonee River in the Florida Panhandle. This includes Walton, Bay, Gulf, and Franklin counties in the Florida Panhandle. Miramar Beach, Sandestin, Blue Mountain Beach, Santa Rosa Beach, Seaside, Rosemary Beach, Panama City, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, and Apalachicola are involved in this Tropical Storm Watch. This has been posted as these areas may have some fringe wind effects from what could be a tropical storm or hurricane passing to the southwest of these areas Monday into Tuesday.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR HURRICANE WATCH LIKELY LATER… There is a high chance that a Tropical Storm Watch or Hurricane Watch will be posted for northwest Florida, coastal Alabama, coastal Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana today or tonight. Landfall of TD19 (likely as a tropical storm or hurricane) is forecast to happen some time early next week from Monday through Wednesday, depending on the exact future track of the system.
REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE SAFETY PLAN TODAY… I know it is the weekend and many folks want to rest and relax, however, I suggest everyone in our local area either a) make a hurricane plan or b) if you have a hurricane safety plan, review it and be ready to take action. It is important to have a hurricane preparation plan in place for the duration of hurricane season, but *especially* in the month of September, which is historically the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Know where you would go if you live in an evacuation zone closer to the coast. Do you have plenty of medicine, supplies, and food in case a hurricane threatens your area? All things we need to begin thinking about if we haven’t already. If you live in a designated evacuation zone, please heed the evacuation orders if you get one in the days ahead.
PAULETTE TO BE A HURRICANE NEAR BERMUDA… A Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for Bermuda ahead of the arrival of what will likely be Hurricane Paulette as the system passes the tiny island in the Atlantic Ocean. Paulette is forecast to be a potent, category 2 hurricane as it passes Bermuda late Sunday into Monday. Fortunately for the United States and Canada, Paulette will rapidly move northeast after moving by Bermuda. The system is expected to become extratropical and race northeastward into the northern Atlantic Ocean in about 6 days.
TROPICAL STORM RENE IS NO THREAT TO LAND… Rene remains a small, weak tropical storm in the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean on this Saturday. The storm is expected to move north before slowing down on Monday and drifting southwest. Most global models show Rene completely fizzling out in about 4-5 days. No direct land impacts are expected because of Tropical Storm Rene. Good news!
WESTERN GULF STORM POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK… Separate from TD19/Sally-to-be, the National Hurricane Center continues to highlight an area of concern in the *western* Gulf of Mexico that now has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm before the system moves into Mexico by midweek. Regardless of if this system develops, direct local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected. From NHC: “A surface trough over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week.”
TWO TROPICAL WAVES LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN ATLANTIC… If you look at a satellite map of the Atlantic Ocean, you’ll see Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene with two tropical waves “back behind” (aka to the west of) the two currently named storms. There is now a 90% chance that a new tropical storm will form in the open waters of the tropical Atlantic and move westward in the days ahead. Most global models show this new storm moving west this week, then taking a rapid turn to the north and out to sea in about a week. We note there are some lingering models that show this system moving into the Caribbean or near the northern Leeward Islands in about a week, but those models are outliers for now. The other tropical wave, currently centered near the Cabo Verde Islands, has a 40-50% chance of becoming a tropical storm. That storm would likely move out to sea and not affect land areas other than the Cabo Verde Islands near Africa.
SCATTERED STORMS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK… After our few days dealing with the tropical storm or hurricane impacts from TD19/Sally-to-be, we return to a warm pattern with scattered P.M. storms on Thursday and Friday of the upcoming week. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s with morning lows near 70 degrees.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have the next detailed update on TD19/Sally-to-be posted later this evening, unless warranted sooner. Until then, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day for the very latest information. Have a great Saturday!